- A report by Lincoln Financial examines how the stock market performs in presidential election years
- So far, in 2024, the market has performed better than average for an election year
- Which sectors will do the best if Democrats win and if Republicans win?
A new report from Lincoln Financial Group examines how the stock market has performed during elections years and probes the potential impact on stocks from the 2024 elections.
Lincoln’s Market Intel Exchange report, released this week, shows that presidential election years have not historically moved the needle any higher for stocks in general, but, depending on the outcome, certain sectors could be impacted.
Outperforming in 2024
So far, the stock market in this 2024 election year has performed better than average.
As of July 11, the has returned 17%, and through the first half of the year, it jumped 14.5%. This is the second best first half in an election year behind only 1976 when the market was up 15.6%. The average first half return in presidential election years is 7.9%.
Incidentally, the market jumped another 3% in the second half of 1976 to finish the year up 19.2%. Only twice, 1948 and 1956, did the market have a negative return in the second half of the year after having a positive return in the first half.
And only four of the 24 presidential election years since 1928 have ended with the stock market in negative territory at year’s end, with three of them — 1932, 2000, and 2008 — coming during economic downturns.
The performance of stocks in the 2024 election year is also ahead of the 11.5% average return for the S&P 500 during presidential election years.
Historically, stocks have performed slightly below the norm in presidential elections years. The average annual return for the S&P 500 since 1928, according to the report, is 11.9%, while the average annual return during non-election years is 12%, including dividends. So, the 11.5% average return in presidential election years, while solid, is slightly below average.
It hammers home the point that presidential election years don’t really have an impact one way or the other on the broader stock market. While people care about politics, markets do not.
“It’s less about politics and more about the idiosyncrasies and the macro environment that influences market returns,” said Jayson Bronchetti, chief investment officer at Lincoln Financial.
However, the report noted that politics and policy agendas can have an impact on individual sectors.
How politics could impact sectors
The economy and factors like inflation, gross domestic product, the labor market, and interest rates, to name a few, have historically had the biggest impacts on corporate earnings and stock market performance.
And the Federal Reserve has never let politics impact its decisions, as only once since 1980 did the Fed not change the federal funds rate in an election year. That was in 2012, when rates were at 0% to 0.25% as the nation was recovering from the global financial crisis.
But the Lincoln Financial report does point out that sectors and stocks within them could be impacted depending on who wins the White House and Congress.
In a case where there is a blue wave, and Democrats win the White House and control Congress, technology manufacturing, telecommunications, industrials, and renewable energy could benefit.
For tech manufacturing, continued stimulus support from the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs and Science Act should bolster companies in this sector. The IRA will also help clean energy development. Meanwhile, additional broadband funding will help telecommunications stocks, and increased immigration should benefit the industrial sector by keeping wages low.
If there is a red wave and Republicans control the presidency and Congress, the report said financials, defense, healthcare, and oil and gas should all get a boost.
Financials and banks will likely benefit from weaker regulations and lower capital requirements, while defense and aerospace will probably surge from increased defense funding. In healthcare, decreased regulation could spur more competition and efficiency, while oil and gas companies could see stock prices jump from increased drilling and mining, the report said.
Tune out the noise
While these are broad assessments of how politics could impact sectors, they are only likely under one party control. If there is a split between Congress and the White House, compromise is more likely.
While it is important to understand how policy could impact elections, it is not prudent to make portfolio changes based on these factors.
“[A]ttempting to position portfolios around the political outlook for certain sectors isn’t likely to be a winning strategy, as party goals are not the only factor influencing company results. Investors are better served tuning out the election noise and focusing on the long-term fundamental drivers of markets,” the report said.
However, one final piece of data to consider is how small-cap stocks have done after election years.
In the six months after a presidential election, small-caps have outperformed large-caps with a return of 11.5% compared to 8.4% for large-caps. The outperformance sustains for the 12 months after a presidential election, as small-caps have returned 19.8% while large-caps have returned 16.8%.
Small-caps have severely lagged large-caps in recent years, so it is unclear if this trend will hold. But as with all of the data in this report, it is meant to provide some insight for investing in the 2024 election. However, any portfolio decisions should be based on sound research into the individual stocks and how the macro forces may impact them.
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