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The S&P 500 Could Use a Healthy Correction to Restore the ‘Wall of Worry’

by NewsB
written by NewsB


In JPMorgan’s (JPM), “Guide to the Market” presentation last Monday, July 1 ’24, Dr. David Kelly, JPMorgan’s Chief Global Strategist, started off the call with the remark that, ultimately, “all systems break down”. David was quoting or paraphrasing one of the JPMorgan analysts, who had an engineering background by education, with the analyst using the word “entropy” in one of her missives. In physics, the word entropy’s 2nd level definition is “a gradual decline into disorder”, which we can loosely interpret as “all systems break down”.

Now, this is no way was a market call on Dr. Kelly’s part. Personally, I thought it was a good intro into a discussion about the economy and the markets today, both of which are seemingly in pretty good shape, but is a polite and disarming way to say that – in essence – all bull markets and good economies come to an end. (David Kelly is such a likable guy and has a very unpretentious and disarmingly collegial personality, that I hope readers will understand that nothing written here will reflect on David’s opening remarks to the Guide to the Market webcast.)

S&P 500 Annualized Returns:

The S&P 500 Could Use a Healthy Correction to Restore the ‘Wall of Worry’

Return source: Ycharts software

After the decade of 2009, a considered effort was made by this blog to avoid similar mistakes to the late 1990s and one aspect of what some might call post-mortem analysis, was to try and identify factors (other than the constant parade of overvaluation calls for the and the between 1995 and March 2000), that were in evidence, (and there were many on a daily and weekly basis), and the “annual return” or annualized return data for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq was definitely flashing red. The S&P 500’s annual return alone for the period from 1995 to 1999 was 28% a year (think about that) and that doesn’t include the period from January 1 ‘2000 to mid-March 2000. The Nasdaq alone doubled from September ’99 to March 2000, a period of just 6 months.

The problem with the 1990s was that stock market returns were “binary” (becoming similar to today): you were either largely a growth investor, and kept up with the S&P 500, or – as an investment advisor or hedge-fund manager – you were largely valued, and underperformed dramatically for 5 1/2 years. Value investing back then ( and value was defined as below 1x price-to-book, under 10x PE, etc.) was largely commodity stock investing, and small-cap driven as – just like today – small-cap, equal-weight, value, and international remain completely out-of-favor.

The other aspect of this not always well understood is that in every bull market, there is a ” generational difference” around investing. My first analyst job at a mutual fund firm was from 1992 to 1995, and the first day I started, I saw a terminal device on my desk, (it looked like a small TV) after I had been working with PCs and spreadsheet software for several years already. Because this firm had been in existence since the late 1940s and had managed money for many iconic American families, the older portfolio managers (both the stand-alone guys who were more similar to brokers and the mutual fund managers), seemed very leery of the personal computer and technology in general. (The research department was quickly given PCs and spreadsheet software.) Many wanted to stay with the device tied to the mainframe, even though IBM (NYSE:) was blowing up and dropping from its high of $175 pre-October, 1987, crash to the early 90’s $50 share price.

A lot of older investors (men and women, as women were starting to manage mutual funds at that time) were just leery of tech in the 1990s. Now, 25 – 30 years later, I’m that person, not in discipline, but I’m that “old guy” who is looking at AI and LLMs (large language models) and thinking, “Maybe I’ll play this through the ETF’s rather than individual stocks”.

A Red Flag:

Getting back to the “annual return” table at the top of the page, note the black-bordered area in the lower right-hand corner. Just like the black-bordered area in the middle-left of the table which occurred in late 2021 (which prompted these articles from , the lower right-hand corner shows recent annualized returns for the S&P 500, which are not sustainable.

The 18-month annualized return for the S&P 500 is 28.55%. That’s a tad stretched. If nothing else, investors could (and should) expect a good flush, a correction greater than April, ’24’s -4.08% drop in the S&P 500, and the ’s and Nasdaq 100 total returns of -4.48% and -4.63% respectively.

Top 10 Holdings:

Occasionally this blog details clients’ top 10 positions when aggregating all client assets as one portfolio, since so much of this blog’s writings are for stocks that aren’t covered daily in the mainstream financial media. Here’s client’s Top 10 holdings as of June 30 ’24 and the YTD return for the holding:

  • JP Morgan Income Fund: +3.31%
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ:): +19.26%
  • JPMorgan: +20.12%
  • Oakmark Int’l: -4.17%
  • Amazon (NASDAQ:): +27.29%
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +17.34%
  • Charles Schwab (NYSE:): +7.83%
  • Alphabet (NASDAQ:): +30.54%
  • Netflix (NASDAQ:): +38.61%
  • SPY: +15.23%
  • Merck: +14.97%
  • Emerging Mkt ETF (NASDAQ:) (ex-China): +7.76%

This distribution is distorted by 1 – 2 large 100% equity accounts. The majority of the accounts and assets are managed on a “balanced” basis, using some derivation of the traditional 60% / 40% standard portfolio benchmark target.

  • The S&P 500 (total return) returned 15.29% in the first half of ’24;
  • The 60% / 40% standard balance portfolio returned 8.78% in the first half of 2024;
  • (): +1.62% YTD return

Conclusion:

On Friday morning, July 5th, investors will get the June report at 7:30 am central, and given how weak the ISM – Services report was on Wednesday, July 3rd, ’24, the Treasury market rallied sharply in response to the surprisingly weak data. Services are roughly 85% of GDP in today’s economy, so services data matters.

was written on June 8 ’24, drawing similarities between today’s S&P 500 and the late 1990’s.

The big difference between today and 24 years ago is sentiment: stock market sentiment today is borderline “fearful” but seems almost apathetic. The peak in 2021 was led by Bitcoin and SPACs. It’s been two and half years since we’ve heard about SPACs, but still gets some press but is hardly the frenzy that it was in 2021. This is important since sentiment can drive markets higher (and lower) than might otherwise be found at normal valuations.

Ed Yardeni, one of the Wall Street greats, throws a wet blanket on some of the AI hype this weekend with this article released on LinkedIn on July 2nd, 2024. Ed raises a good point about the semiconductor cycle i.e. it’s still a cycle, and also questions some of Jensen Huang’s and Sam Altman’s prognostications. (In my words, the hyperbole is really flowing)

Tom Lee, in my opinion, one of the best market prognosticators in the last 5 – 10 years, came out this past week, and said he thought the S&P 500 could get to 15,000 or triple by the year 2030. That is pretty ambitious. If it wasn’t Tom Lee, the forecast probably wouldn’t have gotten the media attention it did.

Just an average correction of 10% – 15% for the S&P 500 would go a long way to restore the “wall of worry” to investing. The S&P 500 could use a good flush.

None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion, which should be taken with considerable skepticism. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing can involve the loss of principal even for short periods of time. All return data courtesy of Ycharts.

Thanks for reading.




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Politics

Trump asks judge to halt documents case after Supreme Court immunity ruling

by NewsB
written by NewsB


Fallout from the Supreme Court immunity decision

A look at the fallout from the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision

02:02

Washington — Former President Donald Trump and his legal team asked the federal judge overseeing the case involving his handling of sensitive government documents to pause proceedings until she resolves his pending requests to toss out the charges based on presidential immunity and the constitutionality of special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment.

The motion from Trump and his lawyers was among filings they submitted to U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon on Friday, which cite the Supreme Court’s decision Monday that found former presidents are entitled to immunity from federal prosecution for official acts taken while they occupied the Oval Office.

Trump and his legal team argued that the partial stay is warranted based on the high court’s reasoning in that case, which arose out of Trump’s prosecution by Smith in Washington, D.C., related to the 2020 election.

“Resolution of these threshold questions is necessary to minimize the adverse consequences to the institution of the presidency arising from this unconstitutional investigation and prosecution,” lawyers Todd Blanche, Emil Bove and Chris Kise said in the filing. “A partial stay is also appropriate to prevent further exploitation of judicial institutions and resources by Executive Branch personnel in connection with the shameful ongoing lawfare campaign.”

Trump asked Cannon in February to toss out the charges brought against him on the grounds he is entitled to presidential immunity and that Smith’s appointment violates the Constitution’s Appointments and Appropriations Clauses. She has yet to rule on either of his requests.

The former president is facing 40 charges related to his alleged mishandling of documents marked classified after leaving office in January 2021 and efforts to obstruct the Justice Department’s investigation. He has pleaded not guilty.

Melissa Quinn

Melissa Quinn is a politics reporter for CBSNews.com. She has written for outlets including the Washington Examiner, Daily Signal and Alexandria Times. Melissa covers U.S. politics, with a focus on the Supreme Court and federal courts.



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World

How is the world reacting to Labour’s landslide?

by NewsB
written by NewsB


How is the world reacting to Labour’s landslide?BBC A selection of headlines and images of reaction to the UK elections from international news outletsBBC

By BBC Monitoring and Matthew Davis

The Conservatives have emerged with “broken bones” from the UK election after Rishi Sunak’s “dismal end” – but the big question for some in the international media is whether the “bland, even boring” Keir Starmer can clean up the UK’s “mess”.

Labour’s landslide victory is being digested by commentators all over the world, many dissecting what the results mean for relations with the UK – as well as for the future of the Conservative Party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher.

The rise of Reform UK also generates many international column inches of coverage, especially in Europe where it didn’t go unnoticed that its leader, the arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage, became an MP for the first time.

Europe: Centre-left success bucks a trend

For Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the results mean “the British [have] had a burden lifted from their shoulders”, but any renewed stability in the UK is seen as fragile.

Voters “were primarily concerned with getting rid of the Conservatives,” the paper says, adding that “Labour has a stable majority, but also problems within the party”.

German business daily Handelsblatt says the British election result “opens up the opportunity to correct Brexit”.

“Now is the time to correct one of the biggest mistakes in British politics. A security pact with the EU can only be the beginning,” the paper said.

Mr Farage’s success attracted a lot of attention. German Tabloid Bild dubbed it an “election earthquake”, albeit one for which the paper says Labour can be thankful, seeing that Reform took many votes from the Conservatives.

French media largely hails Labour’s victory, also noting the election of Nigel Farage. Le Figaro says that despite the Reform party leader’s success in Clacton, “the British people have overwhelmingly chosen a moderate centre-left leader”.

According to Le Monde, the UK’s return to the centre-left is “striking, especially seen from France, where the far right has the wind in its sails on the eve of the second round of the legislative elections”.

Italian newspaper Il Corriere della Sera says of the Conservative defeat: “The party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher emerges from this election with broken bones: it will take years to recover. Has the right-wing wind that blows across the continent stopped at the English Channel? Obviously not… If the person in charge disappoints, he is replaced.”

Conservative Italian daily Il Giornale hopes for a return to stability in the UK, calling Prime Minster Sir Keir Starmer “a reassuring institutional alternative”.

But for Poland’s national broadcaster TVP, Mr Starmer is seen as “a bit bland, even boring”. But fortunately for him, the broadcaster says, “previous leaders of the Conservative Party achieved much worse results”.

In Hungary, the press there noted two issues: “Unchanged support for Ukraine”, according to pro-government paper Magyar Nemzet; and Hungarians in the UK hoping for “a more relaxed stance on visa rules and work permits,” said the left-wing paper Telex.

US sees ‘frustrated’ voters plump for ‘dull competence’

The New York Times casts Labour’s victory as “a seismic moment in the UK’s politics, returning to power a party that just five years ago suffered its most crushing defeat since the 1930s”.

But it also notes the low voter turnout, reporting only about 60% of those eligible cast ballots.

“The low figure speaks to the mood of an electorate that seemed frustrated with the last government but hardly full of optimism about the next one. It also pointed to the challenge facing the new Labour government, which will have to work fast if it wants to restore disillusioned voters’ faith in mainstream politics,” the Times says.

For ABC News, Rishi Sunak’s campaign to remain Britain’s prime minister showed a lack of political touch.

“Predecessors such as Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were more politically astute and able to connect with voters.” As for Mr Sunak, he defied political advice by calling the election in May — “with Conservative support dwindling steadily amid an economic slump, ethics scandals and a revolving door of leaders over the last two years,” the broadcaster said.

Meanwhile, a headline in the Wall Street Journal read: “The UK elects a no-drama prime minister after years of post-Brexit chaos.”

“Eight years after the UK voted to leave the European Union and entered an era of political and economic turmoil, voters have asked Keir Starmer to steady the entire country with his brand of dull competence,” the paper said.

India: ‘Dismal end’ for Sunak

Most TV channels and news sites in India focused on Rishi Sunak conceding defeat.

“British Indians Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman win seats, but apologise for poor Tory performance,” The Times of India noted.

The Wire website called it “a dismal end to his 20 months as head of government”.

Everything Sunak tried during the campaign “really failed”, Times Now TV added. “Everyone thought the Conservatives had a plan but now all those plans have fallen flat.”

But the Labour win “is also a triumph for India”, one news site thought, suggesting that Sir Keir Starmer would seek better relations with Delhi.

China: ‘Can Starmer clean up UK’s mess?’

By Kerry Allen, BBC Monitoring China team

China’s only official statement so far has been via its foreign ministry, which said China “had noticed the results of the British election” and “we hope to get Sino-UK relations along the right track”.

Despite these hopes, state media outlets were not overly optimistic.

“With six prime ministers in eight years, can Starmer clean up the UK’s mess?” asked broadcaster CCTV.

Given the next government faces “the most challenging issues in 70 years”, “public dissatisfaction” might soon follow, mused The Paper.

The Global Times, however, published a positive profile of the prime minister-to-be, saying Sir Keir was “not the inflammatory politician that people imagine”, and that media impressions of him are that he is “conscientious, good at management, and a little dull”.

China can hope for a more pragmatic relationship with the UK, the paper said.

Russia: No change in policy expected

By Anastasia Bazenkova and Yuriy Martynenko

How is the world reacting to Labour’s landslide?A selection of headlines and images from Russian media outlets

Russia’s state-controlled TV channels have presented the UK election result as a “miserable failure” and a “crushing defeat” for the Conservative party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

State channel Rossiya 1 said that Brexit was the only achievement of 14 years of Conservative rule and Channel One objected to how Russia had been cast in the election in the UK, which has helped rally Western opposition to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“This election, like politics in general in Britain in recent years, just can’t manage without an enemy figure in the form of Russia,” the channel said.

Outlets and commentators in both Russia and Ukraine don’t expect the election to change UK policies toward Russia.

“For Moscow [Keir Starmer’s] arrival in power changes nothing, since he takes anti-Russian positions and supports continued backing for Ukraine,” said NTV, another leading Russian channel.

Pro-government paper Izvestiya thought anyway that: “Political changes in Europe show that for the electorate, internal issues are becoming much more important than Ukraine.”

In Ukraine, the country’s national wartime news service Suspilne thought the same. “For the first time in 14 years, power will change hands in the UK, but this will not have an impact on support for Ukraine,” the news service said.



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Sports

Which college football teams are most helped — and hurt — by conference realignment?

by NewsB
written by NewsB


There has been much discourse since the latest round of realignment and media deals that every team in the ACC and the Big 12 should want to be in the Big Ten or SEC, because those conferences make the most money. But the fans themselves aren’t seeing a dime of it. Their lone concern is whether their team wins on Saturday — and more money hardly guarantees more victories.

With college football undergoing a massive facelift in 2024 — bigger conferences, an expanded College Football Playoff — every fan base in the country should be asking just one question: Is any of this going to help us win games?

For example: Oklahoma will make a lot more money in the SEC than it would have in the Big 12. But it also faces a much tougher path to a national championship, whereas Kansas State’s chances of reaching the CFP have increased due to the Big 12’s bigger field and the loss of Oklahoma and Texas.

So what about your school? Does its chances of success increase, decrease or remain the same in the sport’s new world order?

To assess, I’ve given all 67 power-conference schools a score between minus-5 and positive-5. The score is solely about a team’s ability to win, and does not take into account the team’s current coaching staff or roster. Scoring a 0 means the school is neither better nor worse off. A score from 1 to 5 ranges from mildly better to far better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

ACC

SMU: +5

Has there been a bigger realignment winner in the last 30 years? SMU had not finished in the Top 25 in four decades at the time it got the call up to the big leagues last September. Now it comes in with momentum after finishing last season No. 22.

Clemson: +3

Dabo Swinney’s 2015-2020 teams had to be near-perfect to reach the four-team CFP; his 11-2 ACC title squad in 2022 would have earned a top-4 seed. His aloof portal approach doesn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t factor into this score.

Florida State: +3

The irony of FSU trying to sue its way out of the ACC is that the new system works in its favor. Would it rather be the best team in the ACC and earn a top-4 seed and a first-round bye, or the fourth-best team in the SEC and live on the bubble?

Louisville: +2

Louisville has upside. The school has the resources and recruiting footprint to be a regular ACC and CFP contender, and it helps that Louisville is no longer trapped in a division with Florida State (which it does not play this season) and Clemson.

Miami: +2

The U has been stuck in the mud for two decades, but it began flexing its muscle as soon as NIL went into effect in 2021. The program has most of the elements needed to be a 12-team CFP regular, provided the right coach is in place.

Virginia Tech: +2

The Hokies would have made a 12-team CFP nine times in a 16-year span (1995-2010) under Frank Beamer. They may never replicate that level of consistency, but there’s no reason they can’t become a semi-regular contender again.

NC State: +1

The Wolfpack have not won a conference title since 1979. That might be a tad more attainable now that they’re no longer in the same division as Florida State and Clemson. (At least elsewhere, Wolfpack vibes are high.)

Georgia Tech: 0

Recruiting has always been challenging for the Yellow Jackets, made even more so now by NIL. But based on its history, Georgia Tech could make an occasional CFP appearance. It would have gone in 1990, 1998 and 2009, and would have been the first team out in 2014.

North Carolina: 0

This unquestioned basketball school has been long considered a sleeping giant in football but has yet to wake up. If it finally does, it will more likely be due to an inspired head-coaching hire than the various changes to the sport.

Pittsburgh: -2

Pitt is nearly 50 years removed from its national heyday, but it did win the ACC in 2021, which would have garnered a 12-team berth. But star receiver Jordan Addison’s jump to USC the following spring was a window into new NIL reality.

Syracuse: -2

It’s early, but new coach Fran Brown has discovered there’s money in the banana stand. Landing Ohio State QB Kyle McCord raised eyebrows. More broadly, though, it’s hard to argue the new landscape does much to benefit the Orange.

Virginia: -2

Arguably the one thing UVA had going for it was the mediocrity of the ACC Coastal Division, which it won in 2019 while going 9-3. Now, the Cavaliers — who last finished in the Top 25 back two decades ago — risk falling into deep irrelevance moving forward.

Wake Forest: -2

The tiniest school in Power 4 has more donor support than one might assume, and it’s not a championship-or-bust fan base. But reaching a 12-team CFP could be largely unattainable. Will programs like this be able to sustain interest?

Boston College: -3

BC is the type of school that suffers in a world of roster-poaching and NIL deals. Success will also be increasingly defined by Playoff appearances, and the Eagles have finished in the top 12 only twice since World War II.

Duke: -3

Duke just lived through the downside of its new reality. It lost coach Mike Elko to an SEC school after just two seasons and quarterback Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame, likely for a seven-figure NIL deal.

Stanford: -4

The Cardinal will always attract recruits that covet that degree. But the school’s admissions process limits it to taking only a few transfers a year, which creates a big disadvantage in the new landscape. And like Cal, the ACC is not ideal.

Cal: -5

Serious question: Would Cal have been better off getting Washington State/Oregon State’d? An already lagging program must now compete in a far-away Power 4 conference while receiving 30 percent of its money (and without SMU’s boosters).

Which college football teams are most helped — and hurt — by conference realignment?

GO DEEPER

Feldman’s CFP 12-team projection: Why I like Miami, PSU and Texas

Big Ten

Ohio State: +4

Only once in the past 19 seasons have the Buckeyes lost more than two regular-season games. That means they would have made a 12-team Playoff all but once in the past 19 seasons. And probably pulled off an extra national title or two.

Michigan: +3

For the most part, Michigan will still be Michigan. The Big House will still pack in 110,000. The season will still be defined by whether it beats Ohio State. But a 12-team Playoff field certainly doesn’t hurt.

Penn State: +3

Had the 12-team Playoff been in place all along, James Franklin would have made five appearances in his first 10 seasons. The format is ideal for programs like PSU: not quite “elite,” but has the resources to compete nationally.

Michigan State: +2

While the Spartans only made the four-team CFP once, they could have made a 12-team field as many as five times from 2011-21. They also get Ohio State off the books in 2025 and 2026 after having played the Buckeyes in 14 consecutive seasons.

Oregon: +2

The Ducks are the best-positioned of the four West Coast schools joining the Big Ten. They recruit nationally and have Phil Knight’s war chest. While national titles have remained elusive, regular CFP appearances are realistic.

Maryland: +1

The Terps are free! They are no longer stuck in the Big Ten East, where their ceiling would forever be 7-5 and fourth place out of seven. But the upside may be limited until the school’s donors make a bigger splash in the NIL world.

Rutgers: +1

Like “rival” Maryland, Rutgers is finally out from under the Big Ten East. It’s also doing surprisingly well in NIL. The program’s ceiling may still be limited to 8-4 or so, but that would still be much better than its first decade in the conference.

Nebraska: 0

It may be tougher for the Cornhuskers to contend for Big Ten championships in a bigger league. But right now, that’s not even the target, given they haven’t even reached a bowl game in eight years. How much worse can it get?

Wisconsin: -1

The program has long churned out double-digit wins by “holding serve” against most of the conference while occasionally punching up against Ohio State or Michigan. That could become harder with the arrival of USC, Oregon and Washington.

Illinois: -2

This program has struggled to find its footing for more than two decades, and nothing about this new world helps it. If anything, it will be tougher. Right out of the gate, the Illini face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon this season.

Indiana: -2

The good news: no more getting clobbered by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East. The bad news: Indiana, long known for apathy in football, is not likely to be as flush in NIL money as most of its competitors.

USC: -2

While it didn’t play like one for most of the past 15 years, USC was the most prestigious program in its former conference. In the Big Ten, it will be, at best, the third banana to Ohio State and Michigan, and possibly fifth behind Penn State and Oregon.

Washington: -2

The Huskies were the class of the Pac-12 the last two seasons, but it helped not to have an Ohio State or Michigan in their league. Now they have both, plus USC, Oregon and Penn State. Will the brief Kalen DeBoer era go down as an outlier?

Minnesota: -3

It’s unfortunate for the Golden Gophers that they have yet to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, because now it may never happen. A Playoff berth is not impossible, but Minnesota has had one top-10 season in the past 60 years.

Northwestern: -3

The new world may not be kind to overachiever programs like Northwestern. While it regularly makes bowl games and posts occasional Top 25 seasons, it has not finished high enough to make a 12-team CFP since 1996.

Purdue: -3

Not likely to contend for Playoff berths whether the field is four or 12. Purdue’s goal is to get to bowl games, and reaching six wins becomes harder without the benefit of a Big Ten West schedule.

Iowa: -4

The Hawkeyes have made a living out of grinding out mediocre Big Ten West foes while losing 42-3 to Michigan or 54-10 to Ohio State. In an 18-team league with no more unbalanced divisions and three incoming Top-25 recruiting schools, Iowa could be in for a reckoning.

UCLA: -4

Almost nothing about the new world does the Bruins any favors. UCLA is a basketball school whose donors have done little to support football’s NIL efforts. It is joining a conference full of big brands and football-first fan bases. Not a recipe for success.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Maryland in the Big Ten: From ‘what are we doing?’ to ‘amazing decision’

Big 12

BYU: +5

The Cougars have finally climbed the mountaintop after spending their entire history either in a non-power conference or as an independent. They now have direct access to the CFP, and won’t finish ranked 16th with just one loss, as happened in 2020.

Cincinnati: +4

The Bearcats’ dream season in 2021 does not have to be an aberration going forward, as they won’t have to go undefeated to make the Playoff. And power-conference status should help them land more recruits in their fertile city and state.

Houston: +4

After nearly 30 years in the post-Southwest Conference wilderness, the Cougars are back in a major conference alongside old rivals Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. But achieving consistent success in the Big 12 is hardly a given after up-and-downs in the AAC.

UCF: +4

Like BYU, Cincinnati and Houston, UCF got its Power 4 life raft, and it’s not like the Knights were struggling beforehand. They’ve reached three BCS/CFP bowl games since 2013. The only question is how they’ll fare as a geographic outlier in the new Big 12.

Baylor: +2

Since 2013, the Bears have won three Big 12 titles and reached four BCS bowls but have fallen short of reaching the CFP. In a 12-team field, all of those teams would make it. And that was with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference.

Kansas State: +2

K-State could thrive in the new world. It would have made the 12-team CFP four times since 2011. It has sneaky-good NIL support. The biggest challenge will be revenue-sharing. Only three public Power 5 schools made less in 2022.

Oklahoma State: +2

Mike Gundy has fielded eight double-digit win teams, all of which would have been 12-team CFP contenders. Most of those teams lost to Oklahoma, against which Gundy is 4-15. The Cowboys no longer have to deal with the Sooners.

TCU: +2

The Frogs would have made a 12-team field three times since 2014, and, thanks to the Metroplex, they have the highest recruiting ceiling among the holdovers.

Colorado: +1

Anything would be better than the Buffs’ abysmal 13-year tenure in the Pac-12. The Buffs get back into the Texas footprint, which they benefitted from in the old Big 12. But the school still faces an uphill climb in the NIL world, with or without Deion Sanders.

Texas Tech: +1

The Red Raiders have largely flailed since the late Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster, but it’s not for lack of resources and fan support. Getting out from under Texas could help, and while CFP berths might be infrequent, they’re attainable.

Iowa State: 0

The Cyclones, who have not won a conference championship since 1912, will still have all the same evergreen challenges. They could benefit from a more level version of the Big 12, but they’ll still have to perpetually overachieve.

Kansas: 0

The same Iowa State blurb can be applied to Kansas, which has finished ranked roughly once per decade. An expanded Playoff gives the Jayhawks slightly more hope for glory, but 2007 seasons may remain incredibly rare.

Utah: -1

Utah enters its new league as strong as any of its programs, but man, did the Utes have a good thing going in the Pac-12. Not only did they reach four league title games in five years, but they could lord their Power 5 membership over rival BYU. No more.

West Virginia: -1

The Mountaineers have lost a great deal of their identity since leaving the old Big East for the Big 12 in 2012, and the further dilution of the conference won’t help. But they did at least gain their first geographic partner when Cincinnati joined.

Arizona: -2

Joining the Big 12 was great for Arizona basketball. Probably not so much for football, where it has little in common with schools in football-crazed Texas. History suggests the Wildcats will rarely contend for a spot in the Playoff.

Arizona State: -3

ASU president Michael Crow had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Big 12. The pro-market school has little in common with the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, which, unlike the Sun Devils, have rabid fan bases.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Welcome to the new Big 12: Featuring Deion, parity, shifts in playing styles

SEC

Alabama: +4

I don’t expect post-Nick Saban Alabama to make a 12-team CFP nearly every single year, like I do Ohio State, simply because of the depth of the SEC. But it’s still one of a small handful of programs built to succeed in any era.

Georgia: +4

Now, even Georgia’s “down” seasons might still end in CFP berths. Kirby Smart would currently have seven straight, up from three in eight seasons. Between Smart and Mark Richt, the Bulldogs would have 13 since 2001.

LSU: +3

The Tigers have won three national championships this century, but they might have played for even more were there a 12-team field. They would have made nine by now. Of course, they may also fire coaches more frequently for missing the Playoff.

Texas: +3

Unlike rival Oklahoma, Texas has won just three conference titles this century, so that shouldn’t be the measuring stick. But Mack Brown showed what the ceiling can be. He would have reached eight 12-team CFPs in a decade.

Florida: +2

Florida must play Georgia every year while mixing in Texas and Oklahoma. But a 12-team Playoff could prove a godsend; the Gators would have made the postseason three consecutive times under Dan Mullen and 10 times since 2000.

Ole Miss: +2

Ole Miss has not won the SEC since 1963. Oklahoma and Texas won’t make it any easier. But the program can make the 12-team CFP, and its NIL collective has become one of the models in the sport.

Tennessee: 0

The Vols are still playing rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia for the next two seasons while adding Oklahoma. That’s rough. But Tennessee’s collective is strong, and it has the resources and recruiting cachet to reach occasional CFPs.

Auburn: -1

A drawing of the history of Auburn football arcs like a roller coaster, with brief spurs of national supremacy mixed in between long stretches of middle-of-the-pack. And the league just added two more above-the-middle historical programs.

Missouri: -1

Missouri would have reached 12-team fields in 2007, 2013 and 2023. That development is good. But the Tigers have benefitted at times from being in the SEC’s easier division, which is now gone, and they are .250 all-time against Oklahoma and Texas.

Arkansas: -2

On the bright side, Arkansas gets old rival Texas back. On the downside, the Razorbacks have yet to win the SEC in its 32 years of membership, and it’s not getting easier. They would have reached a 12-team CFP three times in those 32 years.

Texas A&M: -2

The best thing the Aggies had going for them in the SEC was that Texas wasn’t in it. Alas. The return of annual matchups with the Longhorns should be fantastic for entertainment purposes but could make for a tougher schedule.

Kentucky: -3

Mark Stoops is on track to have a statue sculpted for taking the Wildcats to eight straight bowl games, but those Gator and Music City bowls might not feel as significant in the new world. They also may become harder to reach with no SEC East.

Mississippi State: -3

The Bulldogs have finished above .500 in SEC play this century just once, in 2014 with Dak Prescott. The SEC getting bigger, and possibly moving to nine conference games, is likely to be unkind for State.

Oklahoma: -3

From 1938-2021, the Sooners claimed a Big 8/Big 12 championship in 47 of those 83 seasons. No major program in the country has more league titles. Realistically, OU will not come close to enjoying that level of dominance in the SEC.

South Carolina: -3

Save for that one three-year peak under Steve Spurrier from 2011-13, the Gamecocks have rarely lived in the top half of the SEC. Now they’re losing the SEC East. It will become even more difficult to maintain relevance.

Vanderbilt: -4

Vanderbilt was already stuck playing the worst cards in the SEC deck. Now there’s a whole new set of challenges stacked against their deck: the bigger SEC, the importance of NIL and roster poaching from the portal.

The rest

Notre Dame: +2

Some might fixate on the fact that the independent Fighting Irish can never get a first-round bye in the new system, but that misses the larger point: They could reach many more CFPs. They would have made five in Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons.

Oregon State and Washington State: -5

There’s no sugarcoating it: Two historic Power 5 programs have been relegated to de facto Group of 5 status, playing de facto Mountain West schedules. And unlike actual G5 schools, they have no guaranteed access to the Playoff.

All Group of 5 programs: -3

For the first time in history, one of these schools is guaranteed to compete for a national championship every year. But that does not offset the further irrelevance — nor the pain of Power 4 schools poaching all of their best players.

Bigger takeaways

  1. As usual, the biggest changes to the sport almost always mostly benefit the “big boys” the most. Outside of the former G5 programs moving up, the biggest beneficiaries are the Alabamas, Georgias and Ohio States of the sport. There are, however, a few exceptions: Oklahoma and USC fall into the “be careful what you wish for” category.
  2. And while the Big 12 is currently scrounging for any additional penny it can raise, no conference had a higher percentage of on-field gainers. That’s because Playoff berths are now attainable for the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU.
  3. Only two of the former Pac-12 schools (Oregon and Colorado) got a positive score, as most are entering their new conferences begrudgingly. It will never not be stupefying to think about how Pac-12 leadership screwed it up so badly.

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Sam Wasson, Kevin C. Cox, Scott Taetsch, Brett Deering / Getty)



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Temple Owls, Connecticut Huskies, Cincinnati Bearcats, UCF Knights, East Carolina Pirates, South Florida Bulls, SMU Mustangs, Tulane Green Wave, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Houston Cougars, Memphis Tigers, Navy Midshipmen, Louisville Cardinals, Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles, Syracuse Orange, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Boston College Eagles, Virginia Tech Hokies, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Pittsburgh Panthers, North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Cavaliers, Miami Hurricanes, Duke Blue Devils, Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas Jayhawks, West Virginia Mountaineers, Baylor Bears, Texas Longhorns, Iowa State Cyclones, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Kansas State Wildcats, Oklahoma State Cowboys, TCU Horned Frogs, Maryland Terrapins, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Penn State Nittany Lions, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Illinois Fighting Illini, Wisconsin Badgers, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Middle Tennessee Blue Raider, College Football
#college #football #teams #helped #hurt #conference #realignment

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History

The Babylonian Engine – Why this Akkadian AI translator is a groundbreaking tool for scholars

by NewsB
written by NewsB


The use of artificial intelligence is seeing a meteoric rise, with increasingly diverse applications. In this age of Google Translate and ChatGPT, we’re accustomed to transforming complex information at the push of a button. So why is this Akkadian translator so revolutionary for our understanding of the ancient world?

The Babylonian Engine – Why this Akkadian AI translator is a groundbreaking tool for scholars

Translation is a tricky skill. Not only must a translator be a technical master of two or more languages, but they must also understand the way people who use those languages think and frame their sentences. In 1929, influential American linguist Edward Sapir wrote,“the worlds in which different societies live are distinct worlds, not merely the same worlds with different labels attached.” Along with American linguist Benjamin Whorf, Sapir proposed the linguistic relativity hypothesis which suggests the language you speak frames your perception and thoughts.

A common example of this hypothesis in action is the Inuit group of languages and their descriptions of snow. While English has one word for snow, Inuit languages have multiple terms which differentiate kinds of snow, equivalent to “clinging snow”, “wet snow” and so forth. Another example is colour perception. Languages differ in their number of terms for specific colours, and the number of basic colour terms is fewer than the number of colours the human eye can perceive. The language we speak doesn’t limit our worldview, but it does sharpen it in specific ways and influence our attention towards different aspects.

When a translator goes to work they must understand all the nuances of a local speaker, in both languages at hand – and the task of translating to or from ancient languages adds yet another layer of difficulty. Attempting to understand the cultural milieu of a civilisation long gone is not an enviable task, and resurrecting an extinct language from purely written sources and fragmented remains takes a lot of time and effort.

British archaeologist Sir Arthur Evans (1851–1941) spent his entire life trying to decipher a script he unearthed at Knossos on Crete. This came to be known as Linear A, which was used by the ancient Minoans in governmental and religious writing. This was succeeded by another script, Linear B, which was an early form of Greek used by the Mycenaeans. It has a similar form to Egyptian hieroglyphics but developed independently. Even now, despite Sir Evans’ life’s work and the work of those who have followed, parts of Linear A remain undeciphered.

The most helpful artefact to decipher a language is one that translates a text into different languages for you. For many people, the most familiar example of this is the Rosetta Stone. No one could understand Egyptian hieroglyphs until this artefact was unearthed in 1799, featuring the same inscription in three different languages: Ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs, demotic Egyptian and ancient Greek. Ancient Greek was known to scholars of the time, who set about attempting to relate it to the then-unknown hieroglyphs. It took them 23 years to decode the secrets of hieroglyphs from the Stone’s clues.

Akkadian is the language of the Akkadian Empire, which existed in Mesopotamia circa 2350–2150 BCE after it was founded by Sargon the Great. At its peak, this empire stretched from Anatolia in the north to Arabia in the south, and from Iran in the east to the Mediterranean in the west. Akkadian is the oldest known Semitic language, and an extinct spoken language today. It split into Assyrian and Babylonian dialects before being replaced by Aramaic early in the first millennium BCE.

We are fortunate to have many surviving examples of Akkadian script, for two primary reasons. Firstly, many ancient scholars continued to write in Akkadian cuneiform even after Aramaic became common. Secondly, the script’s wedge-shaped glyphs were written by pressing a reed stylus onto a wet clay tablet, which was then baked. As clay and stone artefacts can weather more damage than paper or papyrus, a greater number survive – in fact, some of Mesopotamia’s greatest libraries were preserved due to destructive fires that strengthened the clay tablets for humanity to find thousands of years later. The first understandable Akkadian texts are from Ur, circa 28th Century BCE.

The cuneiform writing system has around 1000 signs but not all were used together, as they changed geographically, diachronically, and between periods and genres. On top of this, cuneiform is a difficult language to parse as its signs are polyvalent, meaning they have multiple possible readings depending on the context. Experts cannot directly translate Akkadian to a modern language – it must first be transliterated, meaning they need to gauge the context of each sign in a given sequence.

Cuneiform signs can function in three ways: as logograms, symbols intended to represent a whole word; as determinatives, a word before another that signals that the associated word belongs to a particular semantic group; and as syllabograms, signs that outline the syllables of words.

Once an expert has transliterated the text, it creates a transcription of the cuneiform signs in the Latin alphabet, which can then be translated. This process takes years of training, practice and dedication, and the global pool of scholars who are proficient in translating Akkadian is too small to get through the hundreds of thousands of texts that have been found. We have found ourselves with a wealth of knowledge about the history of ancient Mesopotamia that we are unable to access.

Enter artificial intelligence. To combat this, researchers have created The Babylonian Engine, a neural machine translation model that can assist scholars in translating Akkadian to English. The AI model was trained on text samples from the Open Richly Annotated Cuneiform Corpus (ORACC) and was taught two ways to translate Akkadian: from transliterations of original texts, and from cuneiform symbols directly.

The model was able to handle the nuances of a sample’s genre, as well as understand the variations in cuneiform script across millennia. It has also been tested with BLEU4, a bilingual evaluation understudy often used to assess the quality of machine-translated text – where it scored above the target baseline, in the range of a high-quality translation for both transliteration to English, and in cuneiform to English. The results of this program have already been published in peer-reviewed PNAS Nexus, and the research and source code has been released on GitHub at Akkademia.

The program is not without limitations, as it has been created to work in tandem with scholars and students, and is not self-sufficient. Like all AI models, it is prone to intrinsic and extrinsic hallucinations* which result in mistranslated sentences. (*In AI, hallucination is a term for responses with no connection to the source.) The program works best with formulaic genres like royal decrees and administration records and has a limit of short-to-medium-length sentences. It functions as a ‘human-machine collaboration’ to assist academics in translation, and requires a human to check its results.

But, while it may not be perfect, The Babylonian Engine is a groundbreaking advancement for researchers striving towards the ‘preservation and dissemination of the cultural heritage of ancient Mesopotamia.’ As the model improves with time – as the number of digitised texts continues to grow – it will allow scholars to make much quicker work of deciphering the texts left behind, and the exciting discoveries that may be hiding within.



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#Babylonian #Engine #Akkadian #translator #groundbreaking #tool #scholars

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Health

WHO EMRO | Newly released in press article: Global health governance: actors’ changing roles following COVID-19 | RSS

by NewsB
written by NewsB


Newly released in press article: Global health governance: actors’ changing roles following COVID-19

WHO EMRO | Newly released in press article: Global health governance: actors’ changing roles following COVID-19 | RSS
PDF

Global health governance: actors’ changing roles following COVID-19




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#EMRO #Newly #released #press #article #Global #health #governance #actors #changing #roles #COVID19 #RSS

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Gaming

Super Pocket from Evercade debuts two new editions for the classic Atari and Technos libraries

by NewsB
written by NewsB


  • Evercade is set to debut new editions in its Super Pocket line of handhelds
  • The Atari and Technos editions will feature games from said platforms
  • There’s also a limited-run of woodgrain versions of the Atari handheld

Game preservation is one of those conversation topics that can get highly charged. Whether it’s the people crowing about it being piracy or those who say “Just emulate it!”, there’s never a crowd-pleasing answer. Fortunately, some companies do offer easier, official ways to access older games without paying eye-watering second-hand prices.

Evercade is one of them, and the company has just unveiled its latest line of products with the latest Super Pocket. This handheld device has already debuted with Capcom and Taito versions, but October 2024 will see the release of even more retro versions with the Atari and Technos editions, featuring games from said platforms.

There are also wood-grain versions of the Atari edition that will be limited to a production run of only 2600, going on sale soon.

Super Pocket from Evercade debuts two new editions for the classic Atari and Technos libraries

Wow, so retro

With handheld gaming devices mainly being relegated to retro emulation, we’re always glad to see more official versions on offer. And Evercade has managed to cultivate a fairly good reputation over the past few years, although some may see their 2600 limited run as a bit of a gimmick, unless that’s real wood-grain of course.

Still, with the Super Pockets being compatible with Evercade’s existing cartridges, you can take your retro game collection on the go with ease, while popping them back into your main console once you’re done.

The new Super Pocket Editions go on sale in October of 2024.

But in the meantime if you’re looking for some games you can play right now on mobile, why not take a look at our list of the best mobile games of 2024 (so far) to get yourself started?

Better yet, you can always get stuck into our other list, which features the most anticipated mobile games of the year. So whatever your genre, there’s sure to be something for you!



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iOS,iPhone,iPad,Android,Super Pocket
#Super #Pocket #Evercade #debuts #editions #classic #Atari #Technos #libraries

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Science

New catalysts enable greener ester synthesis

by NewsB
written by NewsB


New catalysts enable greener ester synthesis
RhRu bimetallic oxide clusters supported on carbon catalyzed the cross-dehydrogenative coupling of arenes and carboxylic acids with molecular oxygen as the sole oxidant. The reactivity of the Rh active center was synergistically enhanced by Ru. Credit: Yokohama National University

A new catalyst may well catalyze a shift to greener chemistry. Chemists from Yokohama National University have successfully developed innovative catalysts containing two noble metals that demonstrate remarkable efficiency in ester-producing chemical reactions and utilize oxygen as the sole oxidant, making the process much more environmentally friendly and sustainable.

Their results were published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society on June 6.

Cross-Dehydrogenative Coupling (CDC) reactions belong to the category of C−H bond activation reactions, which play a crucial role in organic synthesis and industrial chemistry. CDC reactions have been extensively developed as sustainable chemical synthesis strategies owing to their atom economy, meaning they use reactants efficiently and minimize waste.

CDC reactions between arenes and carboxylic acids activate the C–H bond of arenes (aromatic hydrocarbons such as benzene) to form C–O bonds with carboxylic acids to directly produce aryl esters. Esters are chemical compounds widely used in various industries, including pharmaceuticals and polymer production.

These CDC reactions, however, require oxidants, or oxidizing agents, to occur.

“Cross-dehydrogenative coupling reactions of arenes and carboxylic acids have typically been conducted by homogeneous catalysts with hazardous oxidants such as hypervalent iodine reagents,” said Ken Motokura, a professor at the Faculty of Engineering of Yokohama National University and corresponding author of the study.

Traditional oxidants can be highly toxic to humans and animals, cause explosions, or produce pollution or harmful byproducts. These methods, therefore, pose significant environmental and safety concerns.

Seeking a greener approach, the research team developed catalysts called RhRu bimetallic oxide clusters (RhRuOx/C), which are composed of two metals from the noble metals group, Rhodium (Rh) and Ruthenium (Ru), combined with oxygen.

With a mean diameter of just 1.2 nm, these catalysts demonstrated exceptional catalytic activity in CDC reactions while utilizing oxygen as the sole oxidant. Molecular oxygen is non-toxic, abundant, environmentally benign and highly efficient in converting reactants to products, with water being the only byproduct.

Using advanced imaging and spectroscopic techniques, the researchers confirmed the structure and formation of the RhRu bimetallic oxide clusters. Detailed kinetic and computational studies revealed the reaction mechanism. The catalysts’ high reactivity with various types of arenes and carboxylic acids was demonstrated, making them versatile for producing aryl esters.

“Our study shows that noble-metal-based bimetallic oxide clusters are promising for the C–H bond activation reactions using molecular oxygen as the sole oxidant,” said Shingo Hasegawa, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Engineering of Yokohama National University and first author of the study.

The new catalysts show potential for making chemical reactions more sustainable and efficient, opening up possibilities for greener chemical synthesis. The researchers plan to explore the use of these catalysts in other important chemical reactions.

“Our ultimate goal is to establish efficient and regioselective C–H functionalization reactions catalyzed by metal oxide clusters using molecular oxygen under mild conditions, promoting more environmentally friendly chemistry practices,” Motokura said.

More information:
Shingo Hasegawa et al, RhRu Bimetallic Oxide Cluster Catalysts for Cross-Dehydrogenative Coupling of Arenes and Carboxylic Acids, Journal of the American Chemical Society (2024). DOI: 10.1021/jacs.4c03467

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Yokohama National University

Citation:
New catalysts enable greener ester synthesis (2024, July 5)
retrieved 5 July 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-07-catalysts-enable-greener-ester-synthesis.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.




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Science, Physics News, Science news, Technology News, Physics, Materials, Nanotech, Technology, Science
#catalysts #enable #greener #ester #synthesis

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Technology

What the Arrival of A.I. Phones and Computers Means for Our Data

by NewsB
written by NewsB


Apple, Microsoft and Google are heralding a new era of what they describe as artificially intelligent smartphones and computers. The devices, they say, will automate tasks like editing photos and wishing a friend a happy birthday.

But to make that work, these companies need something from you: more data.

In this new paradigm, your Windows computer will take a screenshot of everything you do every few seconds. An iPhone will stitch together information across many apps you use. And an Android phone can listen to a call in real time to alert you to a scam.

Is this information you are willing to share?

This change has significant implications for our privacy. To provide the new bespoke services, the companies and their devices need more persistent, intimate access to our data than before. In the past, the way we used apps and pulled up files and photos on phones and computers was relatively siloed. A.I. needs an overview to connect the dots between what we do across apps, websites and communications, security experts say.

“Do I feel safe giving this information to this company?” Cliff Steinhauer, a director at the National Cybersecurity Alliance, a nonprofit focusing on cybersecurity, said about the companies’ A.I. strategies.

All of this is happening because OpenAI’s ChatGPT upended the tech industry nearly two years ago. Apple, Google, Microsoft and others have since overhauled their product strategies, investing billions in new services under the umbrella term of A.I. They are convinced this new type of computing interface — one that is constantly studying what you are doing to offer assistance — will become indispensable.

The biggest potential security risk with this change stems from a subtle shift happening in the way our new devices work, experts say. Because A.I. can automate complex actions — like scrubbing unwanted objects from a photo — it sometimes requires more computational power than our phones can handle. That means more of our personal data may have to leave our phones to be dealt with elsewhere.

The information is being transmitted to the so-called cloud, a network of servers that are processing the requests. Once information reaches the cloud, it could be seen by others, including company employees, bad actors and government agencies. And while some of our data has always been stored in the cloud, our most deeply personal, intimate data that was once for our eyes only — photos, messages and emails — now may be connected and analyzed by a company on its servers.

The tech companies say they have gone to great lengths to secure people’s data.

For now, it’s important to understand what will happen to our information when we use A.I. tools, so I got more information from the companies on their data practices and interviewed security experts. I plan to wait and see whether the technologies work well enough before deciding whether it’s worth it to share my data.

Here’s what to know.

Apple recently announced Apple Intelligence, a suite of A.I. services and its first major entry into the A.I. race.

The new A.I. services will be built into its fastest iPhones, iPads and Macs starting this fall. People will be able to use it to automatically remove unwanted objects from photos, create summaries of web articles and write responses to text messages and emails. Apple is also overhauling its voice assistant, Siri, to make it more conversational and give it access to data across apps.

During Apple’s conference this month when it introduced Apple Intelligence, the company’s senior vice president of software engineering, Craig Federighi, shared how it could work: Mr. Federighi pulled up an email from a colleague asking him to push back a meeting, but he was supposed to see a play that night starring his daughter. His phone then pulled up his calendar, a document containing details about the play and a maps app to predict whether he would be late to the play if he agreed to a meeting at a later time.

Apple said it was striving to process most of the A.I. data directly on its phones and computers, which would prevent others, including Apple, from having access to the information. But for tasks that have to be pushed to servers, Apple said, it has developed safeguards, including scrambling the data through encryption and immediately deleting it.

Apple has also put measures in place so that its employees do not have access to the data, the company said. Apple also said it would allow security researchers to audit its technology to make sure it was living up to its promises.

Apple’s commitment to purging user data from its servers sets it apart from other companies that hold on to data. But Apple has been unclear about which new Siri requests could be sent to the company’s servers, said Matthew Green, a security researcher and an associate professor of computer science at Johns Hopkins University, who was briefed by Apple on its new technology. Anything that leaves your device is inherently less secure, he said.

Apple said that when Apple Intelligence is released, users would be able to see a report of what requests are leaving the device to be processed in the cloud.

Microsoft is bringing A.I. to the old-fashioned laptop.

Last week, it began rolling out Windows computers called Copilot+ PC, which start at $1,000. The computers contain a new type of chip and other gear that Microsoft says will keep your data private and secure. The PCs can generate images and rewrite documents, among other new A.I.-powered features.

The company also introduced Recall, a new system to help users quickly find documents and files they have worked on, emails they have read or websites they have browsed. Microsoft compares Recall to having a photographic memory built into your PC.

To use it, you can type casual phrases, such as “I’m thinking of a video call I had with Joe recently when he was holding an ‘I Love New York’ coffee mug.” The computer will then retrieve the recording of the video call containing those details.

To accomplish this, Recall takes screenshots every five seconds of what the user is doing on the machine and compiles those images into a searchable database. The snapshots are stored and analyzed directly on the PC, so the data is not reviewed by Microsoft or used to improve its A.I., the company said.

Still, security researchers warned about potential risks, explaining that the data could easily expose everything you’ve ever typed or viewed if it was hacked. In response, Microsoft, which had intended to roll out Recall last week, postponed its release indefinitely.

The PCs come outfitted with Microsoft’s new Windows 11 operating system. It has multiple layers of security, said David Weston, a company executive overseeing security.

Google last month also announced a suite of A.I. services.

One of its biggest reveals was a new A.I.-powered scam detector for phone calls. The tool listens to phone calls in real time, and if the caller sounds like a potential scammer (for instance, if the caller asks for a banking PIN), the company notifies you. Google said people would have to activate the scam detector, which is completely operated by the phone. That means Google will not listen to the calls.

Google announced another feature, Ask Photos, that does require sending information to the company’s servers. Users can ask questions like “When did my daughter learn to swim?” to surface the first images of their child swimming.

Google said its workers could, in rare cases, review the Ask Photos conversations and photo data to address abuse or harm, and the information might also be used to help improve its photos app. To put it another way, your question and the photo of your child swimming could be used to help other parents find images of their children swimming.

Google said its cloud was locked down with security technologies like encryption and protocols to limit employee access to data.

“Our privacy-protecting approach applies to our A.I. features, no matter if they are powered on-device or in the cloud,” Suzanne Frey, a Google executive overseeing trust and privacy, said in a statement.

But Mr. Green, the security researcher, said Google’s approach to A.I. privacy felt relatively opaque.

“I don’t like the idea that my very personal photos and very personal searches are going out to a cloud that isn’t under my control,” he said.



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#Arrival #A.I #Phones #Computers #Means #Data

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Finance

2 Stocks That Are Up At Least 30% YTD And Have Even More Upside

by NewsB
written by NewsB


  • Revisiting my previous stock picks of Interactive Brokers and KKR & Co. demonstrates the power of InvestingPro’s tools.
  • Both stocks have delivered substantial returns, and the current Fair Value estimates suggest there is still more upside to come.
  • By leveraging InvestingPro’s advanced tools, you can enhance your investment strategy and maximize your returns.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Unlock access to InvestingPro’s AI-selected stock winners for just 60 cents a day!

The stock market is full of opportunities, but finding those golden investments that offer substantial returns can be a challenging task. However, with the right tools and insights, it’s possible to uncover gems that yield significant gains.

Today, we revisit two of my past stock picks, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:) and KKR & Co. (NYSE:)., which have both delivered impressive returns.

These stocks were identified using InvestingPro’s powerful Fair Value tool and Advanced Stock Screener, demonstrating the effectiveness of these tools in finding market winners.

Subscribe now to InvestingPro and position your portfolio one step ahead of everyone else!

Readers of this article enjoy a limited-time discount of 40% OFF on the yearly and bi-yearly Pro plans with the coupon codes PROTIPS2024 (yearly) and PROTIPS20242 (bi-yearly).

Interactive Brokers

  • Year-To-Date Performance: +44.4%
  • Market Cap: $50.4 Billion

Back in December 2023, I recommended Interactive Brokers when the stock was trading at $81.33. At that time, InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate for IBKR was $120.54, indicating a potential upside of 48.2%.

This recommendation was based on robust fundamentals, a strong growth outlook, and favorable market conditions.2 Stocks That Are Up At Least 30% YTD And Have Even More Upside

Source: Investing.com

Fast forward to today, and IBKR is now trading at $119.74. It reached an all-time high of $129.19 on May 28, easily surpassing its InvestingPro Fair Value price target.

The Greenwich, Connecticut-based financial services firm has significantly outperformed the broader market this year, delivering outstanding returns for investors.

The continued growth and robust financial health of the company have been key drivers behind its impressive performance. It operates the largest electronic trading platform in the United States by number of daily average revenue trades.

It should be noted that despite the strong year-to-date rally, IBKR shares are still trading at a discount, as indicated by InvestingPro’s updated Fair Value estimate.

Interactive Brokers Fair Value

Source: InvestingPro

There’s a possibility of a 28.4% increase from last night’s closing price, moving it closer to its Fair Value price set at $153.69 per share.

The stock has benefited from a strong earnings trajectory, increased trading activity, and expanding client accounts, reinforcing its position as a top pick in the financial sector.

KKR & Co.

  • Year-To-Date Performance: +33.3%
  • Market Cap: $97.7 Billion

In mid-March of this year, I highlighted KKR & Co. when it was trading at $96.83, with a Fair Value estimate of $106.14. This implied a potential upside of 10.6% at the time, as per the AI-backed models in InvestingPro.

KKR stock has since climbed to $110.48, exceeding the initial Fair Value price target. Shares, which have gained 33.3% year-to-date, reached a new record peak of $113.91 on June 12.KKR Chart

Source: Investing.com

Key drivers of this bullish sentiment include KKR’s strong investment track record as well as a favorable macroeconomic environment for alternative investments.

The New York-based company’s outstanding performance this year has been driven by its strategic investments, solid asset management business, and robust earnings growth.

Investing Pro’s latest Fair Value assessment for KKR stock is $114.63, implying a further potential upside of just about 4%.

KKR Fair Value

Source: InvestingPro

Additionally, InvestingPro paints a mostly positive picture of the investment management firm’s Financial Health, highlighting its upbeat earnings prospects, rising net income, and overall strong profitability outlook.

It should also be noted that KKR has maintained its annual dividend payout for 15 consecutive years, underlining its focus on total shareholder return.

Finding Your Next Winner with Investing Pro

In conclusion, the success of Interactive Brokers and KKR highlights the power of InvestingPro’s cutting-edge tools in finding undervalued stocks with strong upside potential.

For example, as seen below, a simple search using the Pro screener found that Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:), ExxonMobil (NYSE:), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:), Chevron (NYSE:), Adobe (NASDAQ:), Salesforce (NYSE:), PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:), Cisco (NASDAQ:), and Walt Disney (NYSE:) meet the criteria of high-quality underpriced stocks amid the current market environment.Stock Screener Results

Source: InvestingPro

If you’re looking to discover your own winning stocks, InvestingPro offers a comprehensive suite of research and analysis tools to help you succeed.

Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, the platform’s AI-backed models and advanced features provide the insights you need to make smarter investment choices.

With InvestingPro, you can access detailed Fair Value estimates, assess financial health scores, and utilize the Advanced Stock Screener to find stocks that meet your investment criteria.

These tools have been instrumental in identifying top performers like Interactive Brokers and KKR, and they can help you uncover the next big winner in the stock market.

Start your journey with InvestingPro today and discover the next set of winning stocks for your portfolio.

  • ProPicks: AI-selected stock winners with proven track record.
  • Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued.
  • ProTips: Digestible, bite-sized insight to simplify complex financial data.
  • Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters, and criteria.
  • Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying.

Start using InvestingPro today and discover the next big winners in the stock market!

AI ProPicks

Disclosure: At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the via the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ).

I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.

The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.

Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.




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