Sports

In the 2022 interview, Williams said he still regularly heard from Walker, adding: “One thing that eats at him is why the Bulls never retired his number, 25. He’ll say, ‘You and I helped save basketball in Chicago.’ And they did retire Bob Love’s number and Jerry Sloan’s, so why wouldn’t they retire Chet’s?”

Chester Walker was born on Feb. 22, 1940, in Bethlehem, Miss., the youngest of John and Regenia Walker’s 10 children. His family owned a small cotton farm, on which Walker worked until his mother, after losing a daughter in 1950 to tuberculosis and suffering from her husband’s physical abuse, moved with her youngest children to Benton Harbor, Mich.

Experiencing integration for the first time, Walker starred at Benton Harbor High School and earned a scholarship to Bradley University, where he was a two-time consensus All-America, averaging 24.4 points and 12.8 rebounds over three seasons. Nicknamed “Chet the Jet,” he was drafted by the Syracuse Nationals in the second round, made the N.B.A.’s All-Rookie team and moved to Philadelphia with the franchise in 1963. He finished with career averages of 18.2 points and 7.1 rebounds.

Information on Walker’s survivors was not immediately available.

Walker’s mentor in the film industry and connection to Hollywood was the producer Zev Braun, a neighbor in Chicago. Braun was executive producer of Walker’s debut 1979 production, “Freedom Road,” a television mini-series about a former slave who rose to the United States Senate during Reconstruction. The series, based on a 1944 novel by Howard Fast, starred Muhammad Ali and Kris Kristofferson.

Walker’s 1989 television series, “A Mother’s Courage,” co-produced with Richard L. O’Connor, won an Emmy in the Outstanding Children’s Program category. Starring Alfre Woodard, it was based on the life of Mary Thomas, a single mother who fought to protect her nine children on Chicago’s impoverished West Side and whose youngest, Isiah, became one of the N.B.A.’s most prolific point guards.

SAN FRANCISCO — The tensest of 24-hour stretches in Klay Thompson’s 13th and final season as a Golden State Warrior — ending in an unceremonious divorce that stunned so many this week — came directly before this past All-Star break, during and after a home collapse against the LA Clippers.

The Warriors were on a five-game win streak that opened in Brooklyn a week prior, the same night Steve Kerr opted to close with little-known Gui Santos over Thompson because Santos made a few fourth-quarter hustle plays and Thompson had been slumping.

It worked fine. The Warriors won. Santos had a feel-good moment. But the postgame story shifted to Thompson, who delivered an honest, viral locker room interview about his difficulty grasping this transitional moment of his career, seeming to fight tears while also emphasizing how proud he was of Santos.

The Warriors won the next four games, but Thompson’s struggles continued. They were 26-25, battling back above .500 now that Draymond Green had returned from suspension, but still desperate to climb up the conference standings before it was too late. Kerr was making rotation decisions with increased urgency and less sentimentality.

Fast forward five months and Thompson’s free agency departure for Dallas has so many in the league wondering: Why? How did it get to a point where a 13-year legacy player willingly walked away from a dynasty brand he helped build and an area that adored him so much?

It’s been a layered five-year path to this divorce, splintering last season, sprouting earlier and finalizing in the last couple weeks, where —among the conversations Thompson had, league sources said — was a request of Stephen Curry not to exert his significant organizational influence and up the temperature with management to ensure Thompson’s return. Curry’s measured voice, even if it altered the outcome, wouldn’t change the genuineness of Joe Lacob and the front office’s true desire to have Thompson back.

So there they were against the Clippers, up 12 in the fourth but in constant fear of blowing a large lead because they’d made it a habit. Thompson hit two jumpers to open the quarter, but his night wasn’t going well. Those jumpers made him 4 of 14 overall. He subbed out at the 7:01 mark and it became clear quickly that Kerr didn’t plan to go back to him. So Thompson stewed.

Strip away the quirks, anybody who knows Thompson will tell you that his competitive fire burns as deeply and as ferociously as anyone who has ever played. It’s a killer instinct that has him bound for the Hall of Fame. The franchise won titles and made countless millions, in part, because of that instinct the past decade.

But dense character traits can be attached to flaws in adverse moments. Thompson was never going to smoothly handle a reduced role. During an early December game in Phoenix — the same night Green nailed Jusuf Nurkić and earned an indefinite suspension — Thompson was pulled from the closing lineup for the first time in his career. In a fit of rage after learning the decision, Thompson whacked a cup rack behind the bench to the ground and needed to be pulled back by Curry as he lit up the coaching staff in the huddle.

On this February night against the Clippers, he planted himself on the bench and boiled, staring out at the court as his two legendary teammates, Curry and Green, were out there battling to preserve the dying days of a dynasty with a rookie, Brandin Podziemski, in his spot.

But another problem surfaced: When absorbed in existential thought (as Thompson tends to find himself), the details of the present (like the mechanics of a basketball game) can fade. The Clippers went up six with 48 seconds left. The Warriors called a timeout. Kerr knew they needed a 3. So he called for a cold Thompson, still one of the world’s greatest floor spacers and shooters, to replace Jonathan Kuminga.

The design worked. Thompson drew two off a screen, found a rolling Green, who hit Podziemski in the corner for 3. The Warriors were now only down three with 39.1 seconds left, plenty of time to play out the possession.

“We didn’t want to foul,” Kerr said. “It’s an obvious defend and play it out, get a rebound.”

Thompson didn’t calculate time and score. He committed an intentional foul after the inbound, sending Kerr and the Warriors’ bench into a collective spasm of frustration that’d be replayed quite publicly over the minutes and hours that followed. Some theorized postgame Thompson’s head was elsewhere.

These Warriors reactions to Klay’s late-game foul 😬 pic.twitter.com/3ehLxrrbwl

— Warriors on NBCS (@NBCSWarriors) February 15, 2024

They lost again, a common factor at the core of most growing frustrations in sports. The proud Warriors were failing more often in increasingly bewildering ways, generating a perpetual blame game that was leaning Thompson’s way more than ever before.

This was an embarrassing blunder for him at one of the low points of his season, only compounded the next morning in Salt Lake City when Kerr, on the second night of a back-to-back, informed Thompson he’d be moving to the bench. He’d occupied the Warriors’ starting shooting guard spot for more than a decade, 727 consecutive games when healthy. It was an identity more than just a title.

But it was now being given to Podziemski, who was 8 when Thompson hit the first of his 2,982 3s (playoffs included) for the franchise. That news didn’t land softly. Thompson ripped into Kerr and his staff, team sources said, and spent some of that day grumbling about his inevitable summer departure from the franchise. His impending free agency loomed in the background all season.

But this is where the complexity and dichotomy of Thompson inevitably whipped back. He went out that night and torched the Utah Jazz for 35 points in 28 minutes and then sat down for another of his introspective postgame media sessions, telling the world he “deserved” the demotion, he’d “embraced” the role, he shouldn’t “pout” and then used Manu Ginobili’s career as a reference point.

Thompson and Kerr sat down for several heart-to-hearts over the last few seasons. Thompson detailed a few publicly, thanking Kerr for reminding him he needed to enjoy the final years of a historic career and not anguish over a chase to reclaim what he once was prior to the injuries. In one particular revealing soundbite, Thompson acknowledged the negative energy he’d been spreading and the need to be a better mentor.

“Sometimes I forget just how lucky and successful I’ve been,” Thompson said.

That version of Thompson is the reason so many within the Warriors expected him to circle back around in recent weeks, have all the necessary reconciliation conversations and ultimately decide on a reunion. He’s deeply proud of what he helped build and went into detail about his desire to remain with the Warriors forever prior to last season.

“I was here before banners were hung up,” Thompson said. “So in a way, it’s our baby. You want to ride it out. I’ve just been so lucky to be a part of this franchise. It’d be so hard to envision myself in another uniform.”

Kerr made some sensitive coaching decisions last season that, in retrospect, played a part in nudging Thompson out the door. In Kerr’s exit interview, he mentioned the desire to bring Thompson off the bench again (he won his starting job back by the end of the season) and the need to play him less in general, a soundbite that wouldn’t have helped in any theoretical negotiations with a player most proud of his durability and availability (a team-high 77 games at nearly 30 minutes per night last season) at this advanced stage of his career.

But the substantial relationship fracturing that led to this split points the microscope at upper management. Controlling owner Joe Lacob led a front-office effort to take a cold, mostly uncommunicative approach to Thompson’s next contract in his three summers of extension eligibility, league sources said, which isn’t separate from their norm. Lacob has done similar in the past with Curry, Kerr, Bob Myers, Andre Iguodala and Green, using dwindling time as a weapon but ultimately paying up (he put a substantial offer on the table for Myers) after a staring contest.

But Iguodala’s (in 2017) and Green’s (in 2023) are the two parallel situations that have popped up most in conversation about the split with Thompson that blindsided some Warriors’ executives in recent weeks. Iguodala and Green, both sharp and versed in the corporate world, used leverage to exact a better deal from the Warriors. Iguodala took his decision deep into free agency.

Thompson operates on his own wavelength. The Warriors’ decision-makers were warned that a drawn-out negotiation into July during this free-agent cycle wouldn’t be met the same way. He wasn’t trying to leverage his way back until the bitter end. After a bumpy end to a grumpy year, there was a realistic chance he went searching for a fresh start and more happiness elsewhere, regardless of how rapidly and warmly the Warriors prioritized him.

But his decision, as one source put it, became easy when the Warriors kicked him down the summer pecking order. They paid a record luxury-tax bill last season and didn’t make the playoffs, a cost-versus-benefit that is untenable. So Joe Lacob, Mike Dunleavy, Kirk Lacob and their front office set off this offseason to explore big-picture moves that could vault them into contention and salary-slicing moves that were more reasonable.

There was little communication between Thompson, the Warriors and Thompson’s agent, Greg Lawrence, and ultimately no offer in this cycle. Warriors sources maintained a plan to eventually make a competitive offer in relation to his market once other business was settled. But they never had the chance. Many league sources said Thompson’s decision to depart was unofficially made weeks ago.

Thompson and Stephen Curry celebrate a win in Oklahoma City in November 2023. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)

Warriors sources will mention the two-year, $48 million offer put on Thompson’s desk back in the preseason, especially considering he is heading to the Dallas Mavericks on a lower per-year three-year and $50 million deal, as an example of their dollars-and-cents intent to keep him around longer term. But the two sides have differing versions of the firmness of the offer and, again, the true desire of the franchise’s lead decision-makers in valuing him as a can’t-lose member of the core, only becoming more complicated when Myers (the ultimate communicator) ceded his high-ranking position in June 2023.

An extension didn’t get done. It bled into the season. Thompson, who led the NBA in made 3s two years prior as the Warriors made the second round, saw a dip in his production. He still made the fourth-most 3s in the NBA, but went from 41.2 percent to 38.7 percent, slowed more defensively and saw a younger crop of Warriors (Podziemski, Moses Moody) begin to bump into his current and future playing time.

The real origin story of their split goes back to 2019. Thompson, at the absolute peak of his prime, tore his ACL on a Game 6 NBA Finals dunk attempt during one of the signature nights of his career. He had 30 points after he hobbled up to the free throw and buried both. Had he not fallen, those within the Warriors believe that series was going back to a Game 7 in Toronto and Thompson was destined for some sensational seasons through his mid-prime.

The Warriors rewarded him that summer with a five-year max deal, knowing he’d miss the following season. Thompson went without a player option on the end of it, a minor detail that now looms larger, considering he could’ve entered the market with Green the previous summer. Some of this is about timing. Despite becoming extension eligible right after the 2022 title like his three teammates, had Thompson been as close as Jordan Poole or Andrew Wiggins or Green to free agency, he’d likely still be around.

After Thompson went 0 of 10 in an elimination Play-In loss in Sacramento in April — his final game in a Warriors uniform — Green, when asked about Thompson’s future, mentioned that the Warriors’ leadership always takes care of its own.

“They did right by me,” Green said. “They’ve done right by Steph. They’ve done right by all of us. Klay tore his ACL and they gave him $160 million dollars.”

At a tense exit interview a few days later, Thompson — not directly at Green’s comment, but the prevailing theory that he owes the Warriors anything for the previous contract — bit back.

“Oh, man,” Thompson said. “Well, 2019, could you imagine if they didn’t pay me after I got hurt? That would have been really bad. Like, ‘Oh, you went to five straight finals, you blew your knee out, yeah, sorry.’ That was very nice of them.”

The Warriors let Thompson rehab his ACL mostly away from the facility during the 2019-20 season. Curry missed almost the entire season with a hand injury. Green missed part of it. They went an NBA-worst 15-50, but felt geared up for another run the following season.

That’s when one of the most consequential days in this run struck. On the same night the Warriors drafted James Wiseman second, Thompson ruptured his Achilles playing pickup basketball in Los Angeles, away from the team’s care and, he’d later admit, with too much weight.

“It might’ve been costly,” Thompson said in a 2021 interview with The Athletic. “I don’t know. I try not to think about it too much. But it just, uh, it’s something I learned from. I’m not in my early 20s anymore.”

Thompson was in the facility and far more committed to head medical decision-maker Rick Celebrini’s plan the second time around. But Thompson ended up missing 941 days and two-and-a-half seasons of his mid-prime, losing an intangible amount of his burst in the process. There were many thorny rehab and post-return interactions as Thompson struggled to fully grasp the best seasons of his basketball career getting ripped away. He did become more temperamental on a daily basis, team sources said.

But Thompson also worked diligently to reclaim every ounce of his former self and then served as a vital member of the 2022 championship run, averaging a team-high 36 minutes, appearing in all 22 playoff games and scoring 19 points per night. He hit eight 3s in closeout games over the Memphis Grizzlies and Mavericks to help secure the team’s sixth Western Conference title in his tenure. Then Thompson played 69 and 77 games and made 301 and 268 3s the next two seasons, respectively, his 12th and 13th in the league, giving him a strong belief that he has a whole lot more great basketball left and should be valued accordingly.

“I try every year I give my best effort,” Thompson said at his exit interview. “And the ownership group has been great. I have nothing but positive things to say about them. They treat us with great respect and do all the little things for us to do our jobs at the highest level … (But the future), it’s up to them.

“At the end of the day, whatever happens, it’s all gravy. It’s been such a freaking special run.”

Required reading

Kawakami: The poetic timing of Klay Thompson’s 13 seasons of splash for the Warriors

The Athletic staff: Klay Thompson to join Mavericks, Warriors get picks

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Getty; Mike Rasay / NBAE)

There has been much discourse since the latest round of realignment and media deals that every team in the ACC and the Big 12 should want to be in the Big Ten or SEC, because those conferences make the most money. But the fans themselves aren’t seeing a dime of it. Their lone concern is whether their team wins on Saturday — and more money hardly guarantees more victories.

With college football undergoing a massive facelift in 2024 — bigger conferences, an expanded College Football Playoff — every fan base in the country should be asking just one question: Is any of this going to help us win games?

For example: Oklahoma will make a lot more money in the SEC than it would have in the Big 12. But it also faces a much tougher path to a national championship, whereas Kansas State’s chances of reaching the CFP have increased due to the Big 12’s bigger field and the loss of Oklahoma and Texas.

So what about your school? Does its chances of success increase, decrease or remain the same in the sport’s new world order?

To assess, I’ve given all 67 power-conference schools a score between minus-5 and positive-5. The score is solely about a team’s ability to win, and does not take into account the team’s current coaching staff or roster. Scoring a 0 means the school is neither better nor worse off. A score from 1 to 5 ranges from mildly better to far better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

ACC

SMU: +5

Has there been a bigger realignment winner in the last 30 years? SMU had not finished in the Top 25 in four decades at the time it got the call up to the big leagues last September. Now it comes in with momentum after finishing last season No. 22.

Clemson: +3

Dabo Swinney’s 2015-2020 teams had to be near-perfect to reach the four-team CFP; his 11-2 ACC title squad in 2022 would have earned a top-4 seed. His aloof portal approach doesn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t factor into this score.

Florida State: +3

The irony of FSU trying to sue its way out of the ACC is that the new system works in its favor. Would it rather be the best team in the ACC and earn a top-4 seed and a first-round bye, or the fourth-best team in the SEC and live on the bubble?

Louisville: +2

Louisville has upside. The school has the resources and recruiting footprint to be a regular ACC and CFP contender, and it helps that Louisville is no longer trapped in a division with Florida State (which it does not play this season) and Clemson.

Miami: +2

The U has been stuck in the mud for two decades, but it began flexing its muscle as soon as NIL went into effect in 2021. The program has most of the elements needed to be a 12-team CFP regular, provided the right coach is in place.

Virginia Tech: +2

The Hokies would have made a 12-team CFP nine times in a 16-year span (1995-2010) under Frank Beamer. They may never replicate that level of consistency, but there’s no reason they can’t become a semi-regular contender again.

NC State: +1

The Wolfpack have not won a conference title since 1979. That might be a tad more attainable now that they’re no longer in the same division as Florida State and Clemson. (At least elsewhere, Wolfpack vibes are high.)

Georgia Tech: 0

Recruiting has always been challenging for the Yellow Jackets, made even more so now by NIL. But based on its history, Georgia Tech could make an occasional CFP appearance. It would have gone in 1990, 1998 and 2009, and would have been the first team out in 2014.

North Carolina: 0

This unquestioned basketball school has been long considered a sleeping giant in football but has yet to wake up. If it finally does, it will more likely be due to an inspired head-coaching hire than the various changes to the sport.

Pittsburgh: -2

Pitt is nearly 50 years removed from its national heyday, but it did win the ACC in 2021, which would have garnered a 12-team berth. But star receiver Jordan Addison’s jump to USC the following spring was a window into new NIL reality.

Syracuse: -2

It’s early, but new coach Fran Brown has discovered there’s money in the banana stand. Landing Ohio State QB Kyle McCord raised eyebrows. More broadly, though, it’s hard to argue the new landscape does much to benefit the Orange.

Virginia: -2

Arguably the one thing UVA had going for it was the mediocrity of the ACC Coastal Division, which it won in 2019 while going 9-3. Now, the Cavaliers — who last finished in the Top 25 back two decades ago — risk falling into deep irrelevance moving forward.

Wake Forest: -2

The tiniest school in Power 4 has more donor support than one might assume, and it’s not a championship-or-bust fan base. But reaching a 12-team CFP could be largely unattainable. Will programs like this be able to sustain interest?

Boston College: -3

BC is the type of school that suffers in a world of roster-poaching and NIL deals. Success will also be increasingly defined by Playoff appearances, and the Eagles have finished in the top 12 only twice since World War II.

Duke: -3

Duke just lived through the downside of its new reality. It lost coach Mike Elko to an SEC school after just two seasons and quarterback Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame, likely for a seven-figure NIL deal.

Stanford: -4

The Cardinal will always attract recruits that covet that degree. But the school’s admissions process limits it to taking only a few transfers a year, which creates a big disadvantage in the new landscape. And like Cal, the ACC is not ideal.

Cal: -5

Serious question: Would Cal have been better off getting Washington State/Oregon State’d? An already lagging program must now compete in a far-away Power 4 conference while receiving 30 percent of its money (and without SMU’s boosters).

GO DEEPER

Feldman’s CFP 12-team projection: Why I like Miami, PSU and Texas

Big Ten

Ohio State: +4

Only once in the past 19 seasons have the Buckeyes lost more than two regular-season games. That means they would have made a 12-team Playoff all but once in the past 19 seasons. And probably pulled off an extra national title or two.

Michigan: +3

For the most part, Michigan will still be Michigan. The Big House will still pack in 110,000. The season will still be defined by whether it beats Ohio State. But a 12-team Playoff field certainly doesn’t hurt.

Penn State: +3

Had the 12-team Playoff been in place all along, James Franklin would have made five appearances in his first 10 seasons. The format is ideal for programs like PSU: not quite “elite,” but has the resources to compete nationally.

Michigan State: +2

While the Spartans only made the four-team CFP once, they could have made a 12-team field as many as five times from 2011-21. They also get Ohio State off the books in 2025 and 2026 after having played the Buckeyes in 14 consecutive seasons.

Oregon: +2

The Ducks are the best-positioned of the four West Coast schools joining the Big Ten. They recruit nationally and have Phil Knight’s war chest. While national titles have remained elusive, regular CFP appearances are realistic.

Maryland: +1

The Terps are free! They are no longer stuck in the Big Ten East, where their ceiling would forever be 7-5 and fourth place out of seven. But the upside may be limited until the school’s donors make a bigger splash in the NIL world.

Rutgers: +1

Like “rival” Maryland, Rutgers is finally out from under the Big Ten East. It’s also doing surprisingly well in NIL. The program’s ceiling may still be limited to 8-4 or so, but that would still be much better than its first decade in the conference.

Nebraska: 0

It may be tougher for the Cornhuskers to contend for Big Ten championships in a bigger league. But right now, that’s not even the target, given they haven’t even reached a bowl game in eight years. How much worse can it get?

Wisconsin: -1

The program has long churned out double-digit wins by “holding serve” against most of the conference while occasionally punching up against Ohio State or Michigan. That could become harder with the arrival of USC, Oregon and Washington.

Illinois: -2

This program has struggled to find its footing for more than two decades, and nothing about this new world helps it. If anything, it will be tougher. Right out of the gate, the Illini face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon this season.

Indiana: -2

The good news: no more getting clobbered by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East. The bad news: Indiana, long known for apathy in football, is not likely to be as flush in NIL money as most of its competitors.

USC: -2

While it didn’t play like one for most of the past 15 years, USC was the most prestigious program in its former conference. In the Big Ten, it will be, at best, the third banana to Ohio State and Michigan, and possibly fifth behind Penn State and Oregon.

Washington: -2

The Huskies were the class of the Pac-12 the last two seasons, but it helped not to have an Ohio State or Michigan in their league. Now they have both, plus USC, Oregon and Penn State. Will the brief Kalen DeBoer era go down as an outlier?

Minnesota: -3

It’s unfortunate for the Golden Gophers that they have yet to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, because now it may never happen. A Playoff berth is not impossible, but Minnesota has had one top-10 season in the past 60 years.

Northwestern: -3

The new world may not be kind to overachiever programs like Northwestern. While it regularly makes bowl games and posts occasional Top 25 seasons, it has not finished high enough to make a 12-team CFP since 1996.

Purdue: -3

Not likely to contend for Playoff berths whether the field is four or 12. Purdue’s goal is to get to bowl games, and reaching six wins becomes harder without the benefit of a Big Ten West schedule.

Iowa: -4

The Hawkeyes have made a living out of grinding out mediocre Big Ten West foes while losing 42-3 to Michigan or 54-10 to Ohio State. In an 18-team league with no more unbalanced divisions and three incoming Top-25 recruiting schools, Iowa could be in for a reckoning.

UCLA: -4

Almost nothing about the new world does the Bruins any favors. UCLA is a basketball school whose donors have done little to support football’s NIL efforts. It is joining a conference full of big brands and football-first fan bases. Not a recipe for success.

GO DEEPER

Maryland in the Big Ten: From ‘what are we doing?’ to ‘amazing decision’

Big 12

BYU: +5

The Cougars have finally climbed the mountaintop after spending their entire history either in a non-power conference or as an independent. They now have direct access to the CFP, and won’t finish ranked 16th with just one loss, as happened in 2020.

Cincinnati: +4

The Bearcats’ dream season in 2021 does not have to be an aberration going forward, as they won’t have to go undefeated to make the Playoff. And power-conference status should help them land more recruits in their fertile city and state.

Houston: +4

After nearly 30 years in the post-Southwest Conference wilderness, the Cougars are back in a major conference alongside old rivals Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. But achieving consistent success in the Big 12 is hardly a given after up-and-downs in the AAC.

UCF: +4

Like BYU, Cincinnati and Houston, UCF got its Power 4 life raft, and it’s not like the Knights were struggling beforehand. They’ve reached three BCS/CFP bowl games since 2013. The only question is how they’ll fare as a geographic outlier in the new Big 12.

Baylor: +2

Since 2013, the Bears have won three Big 12 titles and reached four BCS bowls but have fallen short of reaching the CFP. In a 12-team field, all of those teams would make it. And that was with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference.

Kansas State: +2

K-State could thrive in the new world. It would have made the 12-team CFP four times since 2011. It has sneaky-good NIL support. The biggest challenge will be revenue-sharing. Only three public Power 5 schools made less in 2022.

Oklahoma State: +2

Mike Gundy has fielded eight double-digit win teams, all of which would have been 12-team CFP contenders. Most of those teams lost to Oklahoma, against which Gundy is 4-15. The Cowboys no longer have to deal with the Sooners.

TCU: +2

The Frogs would have made a 12-team field three times since 2014, and, thanks to the Metroplex, they have the highest recruiting ceiling among the holdovers.

Colorado: +1

Anything would be better than the Buffs’ abysmal 13-year tenure in the Pac-12. The Buffs get back into the Texas footprint, which they benefitted from in the old Big 12. But the school still faces an uphill climb in the NIL world, with or without Deion Sanders.

Texas Tech: +1

The Red Raiders have largely flailed since the late Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster, but it’s not for lack of resources and fan support. Getting out from under Texas could help, and while CFP berths might be infrequent, they’re attainable.

Iowa State: 0

The Cyclones, who have not won a conference championship since 1912, will still have all the same evergreen challenges. They could benefit from a more level version of the Big 12, but they’ll still have to perpetually overachieve.

Kansas: 0

The same Iowa State blurb can be applied to Kansas, which has finished ranked roughly once per decade. An expanded Playoff gives the Jayhawks slightly more hope for glory, but 2007 seasons may remain incredibly rare.

Utah: -1

Utah enters its new league as strong as any of its programs, but man, did the Utes have a good thing going in the Pac-12. Not only did they reach four league title games in five years, but they could lord their Power 5 membership over rival BYU. No more.

West Virginia: -1

The Mountaineers have lost a great deal of their identity since leaving the old Big East for the Big 12 in 2012, and the further dilution of the conference won’t help. But they did at least gain their first geographic partner when Cincinnati joined.

Arizona: -2

Joining the Big 12 was great for Arizona basketball. Probably not so much for football, where it has little in common with schools in football-crazed Texas. History suggests the Wildcats will rarely contend for a spot in the Playoff.

Arizona State: -3

ASU president Michael Crow had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Big 12. The pro-market school has little in common with the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, which, unlike the Sun Devils, have rabid fan bases.

GO DEEPER

Welcome to the new Big 12: Featuring Deion, parity, shifts in playing styles

SEC

Alabama: +4

I don’t expect post-Nick Saban Alabama to make a 12-team CFP nearly every single year, like I do Ohio State, simply because of the depth of the SEC. But it’s still one of a small handful of programs built to succeed in any era.

Georgia: +4

Now, even Georgia’s “down” seasons might still end in CFP berths. Kirby Smart would currently have seven straight, up from three in eight seasons. Between Smart and Mark Richt, the Bulldogs would have 13 since 2001.

LSU: +3

The Tigers have won three national championships this century, but they might have played for even more were there a 12-team field. They would have made nine by now. Of course, they may also fire coaches more frequently for missing the Playoff.

Texas: +3

Unlike rival Oklahoma, Texas has won just three conference titles this century, so that shouldn’t be the measuring stick. But Mack Brown showed what the ceiling can be. He would have reached eight 12-team CFPs in a decade.

Florida: +2

Florida must play Georgia every year while mixing in Texas and Oklahoma. But a 12-team Playoff could prove a godsend; the Gators would have made the postseason three consecutive times under Dan Mullen and 10 times since 2000.

Ole Miss: +2

Ole Miss has not won the SEC since 1963. Oklahoma and Texas won’t make it any easier. But the program can make the 12-team CFP, and its NIL collective has become one of the models in the sport.

Tennessee: 0

The Vols are still playing rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia for the next two seasons while adding Oklahoma. That’s rough. But Tennessee’s collective is strong, and it has the resources and recruiting cachet to reach occasional CFPs.

Auburn: -1

A drawing of the history of Auburn football arcs like a roller coaster, with brief spurs of national supremacy mixed in between long stretches of middle-of-the-pack. And the league just added two more above-the-middle historical programs.

Missouri: -1

Missouri would have reached 12-team fields in 2007, 2013 and 2023. That development is good. But the Tigers have benefitted at times from being in the SEC’s easier division, which is now gone, and they are .250 all-time against Oklahoma and Texas.

Arkansas: -2

On the bright side, Arkansas gets old rival Texas back. On the downside, the Razorbacks have yet to win the SEC in its 32 years of membership, and it’s not getting easier. They would have reached a 12-team CFP three times in those 32 years.

Texas A&M: -2

The best thing the Aggies had going for them in the SEC was that Texas wasn’t in it. Alas. The return of annual matchups with the Longhorns should be fantastic for entertainment purposes but could make for a tougher schedule.

Kentucky: -3

Mark Stoops is on track to have a statue sculpted for taking the Wildcats to eight straight bowl games, but those Gator and Music City bowls might not feel as significant in the new world. They also may become harder to reach with no SEC East.

Mississippi State: -3

The Bulldogs have finished above .500 in SEC play this century just once, in 2014 with Dak Prescott. The SEC getting bigger, and possibly moving to nine conference games, is likely to be unkind for State.

Oklahoma: -3

From 1938-2021, the Sooners claimed a Big 8/Big 12 championship in 47 of those 83 seasons. No major program in the country has more league titles. Realistically, OU will not come close to enjoying that level of dominance in the SEC.

South Carolina: -3

Save for that one three-year peak under Steve Spurrier from 2011-13, the Gamecocks have rarely lived in the top half of the SEC. Now they’re losing the SEC East. It will become even more difficult to maintain relevance.

Vanderbilt: -4

Vanderbilt was already stuck playing the worst cards in the SEC deck. Now there’s a whole new set of challenges stacked against their deck: the bigger SEC, the importance of NIL and roster poaching from the portal.

The rest

Notre Dame: +2

Some might fixate on the fact that the independent Fighting Irish can never get a first-round bye in the new system, but that misses the larger point: They could reach many more CFPs. They would have made five in Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons.

Oregon State and Washington State: -5

There’s no sugarcoating it: Two historic Power 5 programs have been relegated to de facto Group of 5 status, playing de facto Mountain West schedules. And unlike actual G5 schools, they have no guaranteed access to the Playoff.

All Group of 5 programs: -3

For the first time in history, one of these schools is guaranteed to compete for a national championship every year. But that does not offset the further irrelevance — nor the pain of Power 4 schools poaching all of their best players.

Bigger takeaways

1. As usual, the biggest changes to the sport almost always mostly benefit the “big boys” the most. Outside of the former G5 programs moving up, the biggest beneficiaries are the Alabamas, Georgias and Ohio States of the sport. There are, however, a few exceptions: Oklahoma and USC fall into the “be careful what you wish for” category.
2. And while the Big 12 is currently scrounging for any additional penny it can raise, no conference had a higher percentage of on-field gainers. That’s because Playoff berths are now attainable for the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU.
3. Only two of the former Pac-12 schools (Oregon and Colorado) got a positive score, as most are entering their new conferences begrudgingly. It will never not be stupefying to think about how Pac-12 leadership screwed it up so badly.

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Sam Wasson, Kevin C. Cox, Scott Taetsch, Brett Deering / Getty)