Sports

How many layers of refereeing and re-refereeing does English football need before it can reach a correct decision?

When Bruno Fernandes stretched to tackle James Maddison at Old Trafford on Sunday, slipped, then caught him with his studs, referee Chris Kavanagh was quick to produce a red card for serious foul play.

Video assistant referee (VAR) Peter Bankes then had the opportunity to review the decision with the benefit of footage that Kavanagh — whose view was blocked by Manuel Ugarte and Cristian Romero — did not have. But Bankes did not choose to intervene, seemingly confident that the threshold for overturning the on-field decision had not been met. Kavanagh’s decision stood and Fernandes had to go.

And yet when Manchester United appealed against Fernandes’ red card afterwards, the FA’s disciplinary commission — made up of three ex-players — upheld their claim that the red card was wrong. Fernandes will be available to play in United’s next three games.

You will all have your own opinions about whether or not Fernandes should have been sent off. At first glance, it looked high, dangerous and cynical. With slow-motion replays, it is clear that Fernandes slipped, rather than diving in. He did reach out his leg to catch Maddison, but did so with his heel on Maddison’s shin, with little force. The risk to Maddison was low. Fernandes said afterwards to Sky Sports that Maddison himself told him it was a foul but “never a red card”.

Bruno Fernandes’ red card was a marginal call (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

But the point is that people can reasonably disagree in good faith about whether it was a red card or not. There is no right or wrong answer here. And so the two different review processes — first the VAR on the day, then the disciplinary commission two days later — can look at the same footage and reach different conclusions. Kavanagh’s decision ended up in a rare marginal space: right enough not to be overturned by the VAR, but not right enough to survive the three-man commission. This is before we even hear from the key match incidents panel, who will likely take a view on the decision this week.

It is enough to make you wonder yet again what the point is of the VAR system. The whole intellectual underpinning of VARs is that with enough time and technology, mistakes made on the field can be fixed. That in every instance there is an objectively correct decision and that with enough slow-motion replays, the wrong decisions can be replaced by right ones. Even if the percentage of mistakes made by on-field officials is small, VARs offer us the alluring chance of moving towards 100 per cent accuracy. Who could ever be opposed to that?

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And yet the events of the last few days show us how flawed that logic is. The fact people will disagree on whether or not Fernandes should have been sent off shows that the idea of objectively correct decisions is a fantasy. The fact Bankes reviewed the footage and then upheld Kavanagh’s decision shows that the technology alone is no panacea. And the fact a commission can then overturn not just the referee’s decision but effectively the VAR, too, shows that the idea of a VAR settling or ending these debates was always ludicrous.

For years now, football has been chasing the target of complete accuracy in decisions. And yet everything we have seen since the VAR system came in has shown that to be an impossible dream. So many decisions, particularly around serious foul play, are so subjective that no amount of forensic replay examination will ever bring you to the truth. The final decision reached on Fernandes is no less contested than either Kavanagh or Bankes’ decisions were.

Think for a second how much we have lost in pursuit of this mirage. The fan experience at games has been irrevocably damaged. The simple link between the ball hitting the back of the net and the joy of celebration has been severed; or rather it has been replaced by minutes of waiting in limbo, stranded in the dark, often with no idea what is going on. By the time the goal is given or not given, the moment is lost. The moments that you live for as a fan, that you travel for, that you pay increasingly extortionate prices for, are now so mediated by Stockley Park as to have lost their emotional edge. The price is far weightier than the prize.

VAR has sucked the joy out of goal celebrations (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

This is the point at which the eager defenders of the VAR system will say that no, the problem is not the technology but rather the people using it, and that if they can simply be trained better, then the dream of total objective accuracy is still within reach.

This has always been a ludicrous argument. Everything we know about football — and about human beings — tells us that there is no such thing as a set of unrevealed correct answers. And that no one person or panel, no matter how many replays they had access to, would ever be able to reveal them. No bespoke VAR training regimen would be able to fill the emotional gap as you wait to find out whether your team’s stoppage-time winner has been allowed or not.

Any argument about tweaking, improving or modifying the VAR system only serves to accept the premise of the technology, to accept the damage it has done to our game and to elevate an academic fantasy over the lived experience of fans. There can be no more accommodation with VAR, which takes so much more than it gives. There is only one argument that fans should make from here: full abolition now.

When the Premier League clubs voted on it in June, only Wolverhampton Wanderers were clear-sighted enough to take that view. History will judge them kindly for being brave enough to stick their necks out in defence of what is right. Maybe it will take a few extra layers of review process, a few new sets of officials trying to find different answers to the same questions, before the rest of the clubs see what is staring everyone else in the face.

(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)

On the morning of Sept. 23, UNLV starting quarterback Matthew Sluka walked into offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s office before practice with a shocking announcement. Sluka, a Holy Cross graduate transfer in his first year at UNLV, said he had not received the name, image and likeness money his agent said he had been promised when Sluka committed to the program in January.

If that wasn’t fixed, Sluka said, he was going to sit out the rest of the season to preserve his final year of eligibility.

Sluka then went to head coach Barry Odom’s office to tell him the same thing. Odom was furious. UNLV, off to its first 3-0 start in 40 years after upsetting Big 12 foes Houston and Kansas, was preparing to host Fresno State that weekend in its Mountain West opener. Marion wanted an answer by that night whether Sluka was in or out.

That morning’s practice would be Sluka’s last with the Rebels. The following night, he announced his decision on social media.

“I committed to UNLV based on certain representations that were made to me, which were not upheld after I enrolled,” he wrote. “Despite discussions, it became clear that these commitments would not be upheld after I enrolled.”

pic.twitter.com/oK5BDRpoxK

— Matthew Sluka (@MatthewSluka) September 25, 2024

By letter of the NCAA law, a school like UNLV is not allowed to promise an NIL deal to land an athlete’s commitment. But it happens every day. And with the NCAA’s enforcement arm hamstrung by several recent court decisions, there are few, if any, consequences for bad actors and broken promises.

“The way I understand (it) is, it’s illegal to use a recruiting inducement and tell a kid that you can give them this amount of money to come to your school,” one Power 4 chief of staff said, asking for anonymity to discuss NIL processes freely. “It’s a joke, because everyone’s doing it, and they’re just putting themselves at risk.”

In Sluka’s case, his father, Bob, and agent, Marcus Cromartie of Equity Sports, claim that Marion offered them $100,000 in a January phone call. But both UNLV and its collective, Friends of UNILV, insist there was never any six-figure offer.

Marion, Odom and Cromartie declined to comment for this story.

Sluka, a two-time finalist for the Walter Payton Award (FCS Player of the Year), graduated from Holy Cross last spring. His former coach, Bob Chesney, now at James Madison, told local reporters Monday that the quarterback had opportunities to leave there for “hundreds of thousands of dollars” but remained for four seasons.

“He’s not a guy that can be bought,” Chesney said.

Sluka arrived at UNLV in June but did not start classes until Aug. 26. Cromartie did not contact the collective for the first time until Aug. 29, according to emails reviewed by The Athletic. That is when he sent an email to an address listed on the Friends of UNILV website, introducing himself as Sluka’s agent and inquiring about potential NIL opportunities. Shannon Cottrell, the general manager of client relations for the collective, informed Cromartie he needed to register with UNLV as Sluka’s representative. Those emails show no mention of the $100,000 allegedly promised.

Cromartie and Bob Sluka attended UNLV’s Sept. 13 win at Kansas and exchanged pleasantries with Marion. Bob Sluka said Cromartie was eager to speak with Hunkie Cooper, a former receivers coach who is now the Director of Football Player Development on Odom’s support staff, because “that’s the guy who’s avoiding us right now about the money,” Bob Sluka recalled Cromartie saying.

“So (Cooper) came out, and he was like, ‘Yeah, yeah, I owe you a phone call.’ Call me Thursday (Sept. 19),’ he tells Marcus,” Sluka said. “(But during that call), they say that, ‘We’re not paying ($100,000), and the only thing we can offer is $3,000 for four months, take it or leave it.’”

In an email sent that same day, Cottrell asked Cromartie to confirm he had recently agreed to a $3,000-per-month offer with Cooper. Cromartie responded the next day saying they were “still negotiating” and to hold off proceeding.

Five days later, Sluka was gone. By choosing to walk when he did, Sluka preserved his final year of eligibility under NCAA rules governing redshirt years, which historically have allowed players an extra year to develop or recover from injury. (Sluka, like others who were student-athletes in 2020, has an additional year of eligibility due to COVID-19.)

“It’s just odd that in our interactions with the agent starting on Aug. 29, there’s no mention of money owed,” said Rob Sine, CEO of Blueprint Sports Agency, which runs UNLV’s collective. “The agent had multiple opportunities to raise that to our attention. He never brought it up. So I’m just scratching my head here.”

Sine, whose company manages 25 schools’ collectives, said the typical NIL budget for an entire Mountain West-level football roster is $300,000-$500,000.

“This is the first situation we’ve seen where both sides basically said, ‘Nope, we’ll shoot the nukes. We’re not interested in figuring this out,’” a former Power 4 player personnel director said. “He (Sluka) tried to flex his leverage, and they were like, ‘OK, we’re good.’”

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A member of the coaching staff discussing financial numbers for a player is against NCAA rules, but according to numerous agents interviewed for this story, many of whom used anonymity to speak freely, it occurs frequently.

The puzzling element is why, allegedly, Cromartie would have taken the word of an offensive coordinator as a binding commitment.

“An assistant coach doesn’t have that kind of juice,” an NFL agent said. “Unless you’re hearing it from the head coach, the GM or the head of the collective — you have to go higher up the food chain. You just can’t do that.”

What’s clear is that many in the NIL space don’t know what to do.

“We’re all doing this on the fly,” the Power 4 chief of staff said. “There is not one program that has this figured out. We’re all figuring this out as we go.”

On July 1, 2021, NCAA schools allowed athletes to be compensated for their NIL for the first time after years of resistance and court battles. But under the new rules, schools themselves were not allowed to make financial offers to players.

Boosters quickly found a loophole in this new arrangement and formed collectives — essentially fundraising organizations outside the scope of the university and its athletic department. Acting as third-party brokers, collectives could induce recruits and transfers to sign with their program in return for use of their NIL for nominal obligations such as autograph signings or commercials.

Long a part of the college football underbelly, pay-for-play essentially became formalized, even though schools had to maintain their distance from explicit arrangements. Soon, players signed with schools after accepting six-figure NIL deals. In one famous case, five-star quarterback recruit Nico Iamaleava signed with Tennessee for $8 million.

Despite frustrations from some of its member schools, the NCAA’s weakened enforcement arm struggled to investigate and regulate in the NIL era. Then, with the NCAA in the midst of investigations into alleged pay-for-play violations at Tennessee, Miami and Florida last winter, a federal judge in Tennessee issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the NCAA from enforcing its rules against boosters negotiating NIL deals.

“The NCAA’s authority to regulate activity in regards to NIL is extremely limited, if any,” said Tim Buckley, NCAA Senior Vice President of External Affairs. “The message has been pretty clear from the courts in the NIL space that student-athletes should have the ability to enter into these agreements.”

Head coaches and other staff members have become both fundraisers and salary-cap experts. Some programs have created new positions like chief of staff or general manager that deal primarily with NIL and the transfer portal.

Meanwhile, agents have swooped in to represent the players and get commissions off of their NIL deals. Some work for recognized agencies with NFL clients. Others, taking advantage of the NCAA’s minimal regulation, have no experience at all. In the case of quarterback Jaden Rashada, who infamously signed a $13.85 million contract with a Florida collective that terminated the deal a month later, an SMU student negotiated it.

“From our time in this business, without getting specific, false promises are pretty prevalent across the board,” said NFL agent Eugene Lee, who has 35 college clients. “Mostly, you see these situations if a player either doesn’t have representation or has unqualified representation.”

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In college football’s version of free agency, where do NIL agents come in?

Unlike in the NFL, which has a player’s union and collective bargaining, the NCAA cannot mandate things like a standardized contract or mandatory agent registry. It has tried, thus far unsuccessfully, to get Congress to enact legislation that would allow the NCAA to do so.

“We want to try to bring an end to this exploitative behavior we’ve seen in the NIL space,” Buckley said. “We would like the authority from Congress to do certain things like an agent registry, like allowing athletes to enter into standardized contracts.”

In the interim, the NCAA and its members are hoping that a proposed $2.8 billion settlement in the ongoing House v. NCAA antitrust suit in Northern California will help bring order to the climate. In a case involving former athletes seeking back pay for missed NIL opportunities, the parties have agreed to a new system in which the schools would for the first time pay athletes directly, using a share of the revenue generated by ticket sales, TV deals and sponsorships.

But Judge Claudia Wilken, who ruled against the organization previously in the O’Bannon and Alston cases, has expressed skepticism about a portion of the settlement that would attempt to limit collectives by having a new organization evaluate NIL deals to make sure if they’re of “fair market value.”

“Keep in mind,” Wilken said at a Sept. 5 hearing, “that taking things away from people doesn’t work well.”

At the crux of the UNLV-Sluka dispute is that whatever offer the school did or did not make, it was not in writing. According to the agents, collectives and staff members interviewed for the story, that’s not unusual. Collectives worried about running afoul of the NCAA’s pay-for-play ban aren’t comfortable with a player signing a contract before enrolling.

“We are all naked when you go into these deals,” one agent said. ”It’s (pulling) teeth to even see a contract.”

The agent said a school’s collective offered one of his clients $1.2 million to transfer there, and even then, he had to trust it would stick to its word. “Now, literally the day he enrolled, he had it deposited in his checking account,” that agent said.

That is not always the case. A former scouting director for several Power 4 schools said he knew of an ACC school that overshot its donor support when pursuing its transfer class and had to pull back its offers when the players arrived.

“The school said, ‘Literally, we can’t pay you that much, and the evidence is, ask everybody else, we’re asking all of you to take less,’” he said.

Meanwhile, some players who have already completed deals seek to renegotiate once they begin playing.

Last spring, media outlets reported that USC’s Bear Alexander, a transfer from Georgia prior to the 2023 season, intended to enter the portal again. Alexander, then considered the Trojans’ most talented defensive lineman, quickly took to social media to dispel the rumor, after receiving an “adjusted” NIL deal. He had become “a bit more expensive,” a program source confirmed to The Athletic.

On the day after Sluka’s announcement, Alexander also opted to shut it down and preserve his redshirt, although his guardian, Tony Jones, told media outlets it was due to Alexander’s reduced playing time in the Trojans’ first three games. But Jones told TMZ Sports: “We could potentially land back in the SEC. We’re still evaluating.”

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Sine said he’s concerned whether Sluka’s decision will start a trend nationally, one that could wreak havoc on the sport four weeks into next season if more players who aren’t happy with their NIL deals shut things down. He hopes revenue-sharing, if approved, will allow schools to finally tie compensation to participation.

“We could put a formal contract down (before enrolling), but if you transfer or leave early, there might be a buyout clause,” he said. “If you quit midway through, you’re going to owe a penalty.”

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy told reporters he preemptively addressed the issue with his team during the preseason: “Tell your agent to quit calling us and asking for more money. It’s non-negotiable now. It’ll start again in December.’

NCAA members are still fighting vehemently against athletes being recognized as employees, which prevents them from forming a union or collectively bargaining. And even if the NCAA relented, it could not force the athletes to accept things like a standardized contract.

Five days after Sluka’s announcement, undefeated UNLV entered the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history following a 59-14 rout of Fresno State. Sluka’s replacement, Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, threw for three touchdowns and ran for a fourth.

Sluka is moving back home to Long Island, his father said. The former Holy Cross star plans to work with a private quarterback coach and prepare for his next move.

“He’s going to jump in the portal,” Bob Sluka said. “Matt’s going to end up at one heck of a school.”

— Antonio Morales, Joe Rexrode and Ralph Russo contributed reporting.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo: Kyle Rivas / Getty)

Lamar Jackson’s second prime-time quarterback showdown went much better than the first.

The two-time MVP’s Baltimore Ravens drubbed Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, 35-10, on Sunday night. Jackson amassed three touchdowns but didn’t need to do it all himself, as the running back tandem of Derrick Henry and Justice Hill combined for 305 yards from scrimmage, and the defense delivered its most suffocating showing of the season.

Unlike the Week 1 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs when Jackson had to do everything before running out of gas at the end, this victory showed the star quarterback’s true potential when he’s able to delegate. Jackson has proven to be an unstoppable force when he’s at his best, and he overtook C.J. Stroud in this week’s QB rankings as a result.

Allen stayed at the top for a second week, not because of anything that he did Sunday but because of the entire body of work this season. He’s already pocketed three brilliant performances and was afforded a substandard showing in Baltimore.

Plus, Patrick Mahomes is still fighting it with some of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles, while Jackson and Stroud have had some of their own forgettable moments in the opening month.

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There’s a bit of a gap between the top four quarterbacks and Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy, but that trio could enter the mix with more consistent upper-tier performances in the coming weeks.

Bolt down

Justin Herbert has opened the season with four consecutive games with fewer than 200 passing yards. Before the season, he’d never even gone back-to-back games with that little production, and he only had seven total games with fewer than 200 yards through the air.

Herbert has played efficiently with a 96.3 passer rating and a single interception while adjusting to an overhaul at the skill positions and playing through a high ankle sprain. League evaluators believed before the season that he’d operate a more conservative offense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, so it’s not a major cause for concern, but it would be nice to see the Los Angeles Chargers open it up a bit more when he’s healthier.

Ladd McConkey & Justin Herbert may be the throw and catch of the year so far.
pic.twitter.com/QjPeJ5pOvZ

— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 29, 2024

Another hurdle: Herbert has been sacked six times — the 6.19 percent sack rate would be the highest of his career if it doesn’t improve. With Herbert’s injuries seeming to mount each season, the protection issues are certainly a concern.

It’s still too early to know who the Chargers really are as they enter their bye week, partly because they’re deploying Herbert in a different manner. They’ve beaten the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers but lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chiefs. There’s not a lot of middle ground with those opponents.

They’ve played very good defense in all four outings and ran the ball extremely well in their two victories. Harbaugh is likely still trying to figure out what he’s got for a team before unleashing Herbert — to an extent, anyway — but their ceiling hinges on their star quarterback’s ability to go throw for throw with his top-tier counterparts.

Love up

Jordan Love delivered an electric comeback attempt that ultimately fell short against the Minnesota Vikings, and he improved his standing from his last appearance in the rankings.

Sure, there was a lot of attention on his three interceptions in his return from an MCL sprain, but it seemed even more impressive to put up 29 points against a Brian Flores defense that has given everyone else nightmares this season.

Love’s first interception was a late read on his second possession after the two-week absence, so that can be explained away. His second went through two receivers’ hands. His third was a result of pressing with a 31-22 deficit late in the fourth quarter. That was the biggest mistake, with Love likely thinking he’d only get one more possession. He ultimately got two more series, so the lost points from the pick were significant.

Again, look at it from another way. The Vikings had surrendered 30 points in their first three games, and Love put that defense to work while operating in obvious passing situations. The Packers also missed two field goals and twice turned it over on downs in field-goal range while attempting to erase a 28-point deficit.

Love to Wicks again! #MINvsGB pic.twitter.com/NOYEmbUCOO

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 29, 2024

The Packers had numerous chances to deliver the Vikings’ first loss, and Love’s play was a reason why.

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Muddied in the middle

The quarterbacks ranked Nos. 13-18 could have been submitted in any order, which is tough because each end of that spectrum is important. Ranked 13th, and you’re on the cusp of cracking into the top third. Ranked 18th, and you’re viewed as below average.

This tier could widen, too, with the quarterbacks in the range of Nos. 19-23 just needing a little more consistency to push up the rankings.

For example, Sam Darnold dropped a spot because there’s so much parity in that area of the rankings. Vikings fans won’t love that, but it came down to ball security. Darnold had an interception and a lost fumble against the Packers. He’s now got three picks and four fumbles (one lost) in four starts.

X gon’ take it from ya.#MINvsGB pic.twitter.com/iuUdeNQkS8

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 29, 2024

Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts have also had problems protecting the ball. Stafford has thrown two end-zone interceptions, both coming in 6-point losses. Hurts has four interceptions and a league-worst five fumbles. That’s why they’ve fallen so far from their initial rankings.

In ‘Command’

And then there’s Jayden Daniels, who is lighting the league on fire with an obscene 82.1 completion percentage, 897 passing yards and three touchdowns to one interception. He’s also got 218 rushing yards and four scores, with 18 of his 46 runs going for first downs.

The Commanders offense has punted once in three games.

They have averaged over 33 points per game in those contests.

Washington sits alone atop the NFC East after four weeks. pic.twitter.com/iVFtAWyol3

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 29, 2024

Daniels is having a better season than a few quarterbacks ahead of him, and he’ll continue moving up the rankings with a larger sample size. There’s an expected adjustment coming for the rookie. If he handles it as well as he has with every other obstacle so far, it’s not unreasonable to think Daniels could push for a top-10 spot later this season.

Daniels deserves all the credit in the world for his ability to stay in control. He’s making great decisions and smart reads, and he’s delivering a terrific ball. A Stroud-like rookie year may be in the making.

Tip your cap to those around him, too. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is keeping the offense on schedule and getting help from the running game, and Daniels has delivered the big plays whenever necessary.

The Commanders are legitimate players in the playoff race, and they might even have staying power atop the NFC East with their division rivals dealing with much more adversity.

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Second-year setback

Anthony Richardson’s alarming season got worse Sunday with a hip injury. Even if he doesn’t miss time, it’s hard not to notice it happened in his fourth game, which is how many he played as a rookie before going down for the season.

Richardson’s inaccuracy woes are the root of the problem. He’s completed 50.6 percent of his passes this season and has a league-high six interceptions. He doesn’t appear to be seeing the field well enough and is struggling to maintain proper mechanics, which often comes from being too sped up or being short on confidence.

What’s more, the ageless Joe Flacco stepped in Sunday and was 16-of-26 for 168 yards and two touchdowns in the victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers. To be fair, the offense was off to a good start with Richardson on the field, so it’s possible that would have continued if he stayed healthy.

But seeing how the offense operated during an extended look with Flacco, relative to the previous three games, it’s worth wondering if it’d make sense to give Richardson a breather to heal the hip and watch Flacco. The Colts are good enough to make a charge for a playoff spot, so they’re in a tricky spot when it comes to developing Richardson while trying to stack wins.

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As for Flacco, could this be the second year in a row when he’s spelled a franchise quarterback and provided an upgrade? Flacco had the best statistical stretch of his career last season with the Cleveland Browns, so he’s still got something in the tank. But if Richardson is indeed good to go and head coach Shane Steichen believes he is ready to turn the corner, the point about Flacco would be irrelevant.

(Photo of Justin Herbert: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)

The Athletic has live coverage of the MLB Wild Card Series.

You don’t need some pointy-headed baseball writer to tell you that the postseason can be unpredictable. The Arizona Diamondbacks won the pennant last year. Every generation gets their perfect example of a team that rides a wave all the way to the World Series, and the 84-win 2023 Diamondbacks are the best possible example.

Unless the team that beat them in the World Series, the Texas Rangers, are an even better example. That team had a bullpen that could allow home runs on their off-days, and it was only getting worse when the postseason started. And, then, poof, they were an asset instead of a liability. As if by magic. October magic. The sickest, freakiest magic of them all.

However, there’s a wrinkle this year. For the first time I can remember, I’m not sure if there’s a team that’s favored to win it all. I’m not sure if you can whittle it down to a group of four or five. It’s possible to poke holes in every single roster. It’s also possible to acknowledge that all of these teams have a shot to win it all even without October weirdness. This is a remarkably even field.

These playoff tiers are less about long shots and favorites and more about how the whole experience will resonate with the teams and their fans if they don’t win it all. Eleven fan bases will be devastated over the next month, but some of them will be more devastated than others.

Tier 5: Aw, raspberries. But what a season! Wait ’til next year!

Detroit Tigers

It seems rude to put them here after how hard they had to work to make the postseason, but it’s impossible to concoct a scenario where a Tigers fan doesn’t remember the 2024 team. Anyone paying attention to the 2024 Tigers right now will remember the team fondly for the rest of their days. Oh, that team from ’24? Golly, that was a fun season. What moxie! What spunk!

On Aug. 4, the Tigers were closer to the A’s than the Royals. I know these factlets can bleed together, but read that one again. That was a few weeks ago. They weren’t in a race, and they weren’t supposed to be. They went 33-15 after that, which was the best record in baseball. That’s impressive enough, but they were also obliterating their opponents, scoring 207 runs and allowing 139, which is the kind of run differential that might translate to a 104-win season over a full season. So are we sure that they’re happy with a participation ribbon?

No, but this is still a roster with perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and two or three hitters better than the league average, which is a difficult roster to ride to a championship. The Tigers have already had a great season, and they can head into the offseason with momentum, sign some missing pieces and everyone will feel good about it. Or they could shock the world and win the whole thing.

Either way, Tigers fans will be happy about the 2024 season on some level.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals lost 106 games last year. They’ve won a World Series within the last 10 years. They’re supposed to be crushed if 2024 isn’t maximum magic?  Just like the Tigers, this season has already been an unqualified success.

Unlike the Tigers, though, the Royals are entering the postseason without any wind in the sails. They should have had an easier path to the postseason with the wins they banked earlier in the year, but they stumbled at the end. Still, they have one of the most dynamic young players in baseball (Vinnie Pasquantino) and they also have Bobby Witt Jr. Their new front office has already exhibited a lot of vision. Their season won’t be defined by what they do in October. It’s already been logged as an incredible success.

Tier 4: The window is still wide open, but, uh, we’re starting to get a little impatient.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are in the sweet spot that every organization wants to be in: They’re young, and they’re contending. They should be contending for a long, long time, with MVP-ceiling youngsters already in the lineup and more on the way. Their rotation is a little top-heavy, and their best pitcher will likely sign with another team in the offseason, but this is a team that’s built to last.

Adley Rutschman is part of the Orioles’ young core. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Beware the false sense of security that comes with a young, contending team. Sometimes it works out as expected, and your future is filled with pennants and more. Sometimes it’s more like a slasher film, where players start disappearing, one by one, until there are just a couple left, all they can do is run around and scream. If you think that’s too dramatic, look over the respective rosters for the division-winning 2021 White Sox and the not-division-winning 2024 White Sox. Luis Robert Jr. and Yoán Moncada have locked themselves in the basement and are trying to call for help, but someone cut the phone lines.

So if the Orioles could just get the World Series championship out of the way now, it would certainly take a lot of the pressure off. The window will remain open if it doesn’t happen, but that’s less comforting than you might think.

Tier 3: A pennant would be pretty cool, not gonna lie.

Atlanta Braves

In any other year, the Braves would be in a category where nothing matters but a championship. They were the best team in baseball going into the season, and there was only way for them to consider 2024 a success. Then they were attacked by weasels, sucked into the gears of industrial machinery, pushed into a spiky pit and locked in a steamer trunk being sent to Abu Dhabi, not necessarily in that order. They might have had the preseason favorites for Cy Young and MVP and lost both to injury, yet they’ve still cobbled together a roster that’s good enough to scare other teams, even if it’s far from the roster they were counting on. Not many teams would have been able to do even that.

So, yes, even if they make the World Series and lose, it’ll be a successful season. The Braves would be much happier with a championship, to be sure, but it’s remarkable that they’re even in position for one.

New York Mets

Steve Cohen didn’t kick down the door of the 2022 Winter Meetings and scream, “Come with me if you to win” because he wanted to win a pennant. They’re a championship-or-bust team in theory.

We need to return to the days where people thought that winning the pennant was almost as cool as winning the World Series. There are 28 teams that wish they could have had that kind of success, with the attention of the sports-loving world focused on a city that’s buzzing with an energy that might not be there for the next 10, 20, 30 or 40 years. Heck, it might not come again in your lifetime. Appreciate the World Series when it’s there. Pennants are pretty cool.

Toward the end of May, the Dodgers came into Citi Field and swept the Mets, dropping them to 22-33. It was another lost season for the Mets, another unfulfilled promise from an owner who was supposed to fix things. Even if they get to the World Series and lose to, say, the Orioles or Royals, were you not entertained?

(Can’t lose to the Yankees, though. We can all agree on that one.)

Tier 2: Please. Just one. For the love of all that is holy. Just one.

San Diego Padres

Slowly but surely, the depressing Padres factlets are going away. They went 46 years without a player hitting for the cycle, and then it happened. They went 52 years without a no-hitter, and now they have two, with both pitchers likely to be in their postseason rotation. Their all-time franchise leader in home runs used to be Nate Colbert, with 163. While he was a fine player, that shouldn’t have been a franchise record, especially for an organization that had Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff, Dave Winfield and Adrián González at different points when they were in their 20s. The franchise record belongs to Manny Machado now, who should only add to it. This is a normal franchise home-run-record situation.

There’s one box left to check, though, and it’s so close, yet so very far. The Padres have never won a World Series, and the last time San Diego has had a championship team was when the Chargers defeated the Boston Patriots for the 1963 AFL title. There are expectations here. Realistic expectations.

With realistic expectations comes the potential for maximum sports pain. Padres fans might be used to it, but that doesn’t make it easier.

Cleveland Guardians

When Willie Mays passed away earlier this year, we were treated with replays of “The Catch” on a loop. His hat falls off. He fires the ball back to the infield. Guys in ties stand up and applaud and say things like, “hokey smokes, good golly.” It’s so familiar and comforting for baseball fans. And so old. It happened so, so long ago. The last time the Guardians won a World Series was before that. That 1954 team might have been the best in franchise history, but they lost the World Series, and it was just the beginning of a long, long drought.

Another way to describe how long it’s been: Hollywood made a movie about Cleveland baseball specifically because the franchise was synonymous with pain and frustration, and they made it so long ago that Alex Cobb was the only Guardians player alive when it came out. He wasn’t even two years old yet.

Can José Ramírez help the Guardians break their World Series drought? (Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The White Sox spent nearly a century without a single postseason series win, but they got one. The Cubs finally got one, and they did it at Cleveland’s expense. It’s well past time for the Guardians to join them in the Land of Temporary and Fleeting Bliss. Yet the odds are against them, just like they’re against every team.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have the most underrated championship drought in baseball, and it’s not close. They were the proto-Mariners back when they were the Seattle Pilots, and they brought some of that malaise with them when they moved east. They’ve been playing in Milwaukee since “Led Zeppelin III” came out, but they have just one pennant, from 42 years ago.

It’s a remarkable team and franchise in so many respects. They have fewer built-in advantages than any other MLB team:

MLB revenue sharing follows something called market score. The A’s, by market score, should have been disqualified. Big city, but no stadium, so they were granted a special allowance to keep receiving it. But that special allowance had an expiration. pic.twitter.com/gQ327nlY5h

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) September 23, 2024

Their former manager was poached by a big-market bully of a rival. Their biggest financial investment, Christian Yelich, finally started playing at a superstar level again, only to get hurt. They traded their best pitcher to a team they might face in the World Series, in a situation where other teams simply would have kept that starting pitcher.

That plucky, can-do spirit goes only so far, though. If, say, the Yankees or Dodgers don’t win the World Series this year, their fans will be furious and/or despondent. But they won’t have the sense of “is this it?” that teams with razor-thin profit margins and teensy markets will have. The Brewers don’t have a window so much as they have a variety of holes they’ve punched in the drywall. Anything other than a championship will be devastating at this point.

Tier 1: Don’t bother coming home without a championship. Sit in the corner until March and think about what you’ve done.

Philadelphia Phillies

It’s fun to reach the League Championship Series in two straight seasons, but it sure adds to the pressure. The Phillies have an ownership group that cares and a front office that mixes aggressiveness with practicality. That’s the secret sauce that every organization strives for, but at one point it has to work. And by “work,” we mean, “scrape enough residue of design together to get lucky and to win a World Series.”

The Phillies aren’t suffocating under the weight of a century-long curse, but the last time they won the World Series, they did it when you had to close an app to answer a phone call on your iPhone. It was so long ago that people answered calls on purpose with their phones.

Bryce Harper has more World Series plate appearances than Mike Trout, but he has fewer than Pedro Feliz. The Phillies would like to fix that, and they’d also like to get him as many World Series rings as R.J. Swindle. They’ve spent an awful lot of money for that chance.

Houston Astros

If the Astros fail, it will sting less than other recent seasons. They were dead, buried, forgotten and ashamed already this season.  On June 18, they were 33-40 and 10 games out of first place. Have they not already achieved something memorable and great? The season will be remembered fondly, regardless of what happens in October.

Yes. But they’re still the Astros, and they’ve been in every ALCS since 2016, which is an absolutely freaky achievement. They don’t appreciate silver medals and second-place ribbons as gracefully as other teams might. There’s no gee-whiz that comes with a World Series in Houston; they’ve hosted four of them in the last decade. That part of the novelty is gone. It’s about parades down … whatever the famous street is in Houston. Maybe they just close down a 16-lane freeway and party there, not sure. They should do that, to be clear.

If they win this World Series, it will be with more finesse and luck than their other championships, which usually featured brute force and a glut of talent. That doesn’t mean the expectations are lower.

New York Yankees

Don’t take it from me. Take it from Giancarlo Stanton.

Are the Yankees the team to beat in the playoffs?

Giancarlo Stanton: “We’d better be. That’s the point.”

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) September 27, 2024

Yeah, it was tempting to put the Yankees in the “pennants are neat” category, but let’s not fool ourselves. This is a franchise that will forever strain under the weight of successes that happened decades and decades ago. We’re close to the 100-year anniversary of the 1927 Yankees, which is still used as shorthand to describe one of the greatest sports teams ever assembled. But that team, along with all the others until the 1970s, came together when players’ freedom was limited, other franchises were happy to be de facto farm systems for bigger teams and only one team made the postseason from each league. Continuity was much, much easier back then. It was structurally encouraged.

Without that history, their run in the late ’90s and early ’00s is more analogous to what the A’s did in the ’70s or what the Giants did in the ’10s. It would have been a spectacle that was as unlikely as it was remarkable. Instead, though, it was the continuation of a framework that didn’t exist anymore, one which Yankees are still chasing. They don’t get to high-five each other with a close-but-no-cigar run to the World Series, fair or not.

The Yankees will be a World Series-or-bust team until people don’t remember who Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle or Derek Jeter are. And that’s not going to happen until society collapses and canned beets are the dominant form of currency. So, two months, give or take.

Los Angeles Dodgers

NO PRESSURE. Other than all of the pressure.

The Dodgers committed a billion dollars, give or take, this offseason. They’ll have four no-doubt Hall of Famers on their postseason roster, along with a couple others who have a chance if they keep it up. The most sought-after free agent in the history of the sport chose them because they represented the best chance to fulfill his championship dreams.

And after all the injuries and entropy, here’s what the Dodgers’ rotation currently looks like:

But they’ll make it work! They’ll either hit their way to a championship, or they’ll cobble together enough clean innings from their entire 12-man staff, unless they do both.

And if they don’t, what is the plan? To get another Shohei Ohtani? To develop another Clayton Kershaw? There is no plan with a better chance of success than what the Dodgers have built over the last decade. This has to work.

Baseball doesn’t give a rip about “has to work,” though. There is only chaos and malevolence for the 96.667 percent of teams that don’t win the World Series every year. No pressure, other than all of the pressure.

(Top photo of Juan Soto (left) and Bryce Harper: Chris Szagola / Associated Press)

BLAINE, Minn. — Not even 15 hours after having his socks knocked off by a trade that ended his nine-year run in Minnesota, Karl-Anthony Towns strolled onto Field 49N at the National Sports Center, a sprawling youth soccer complex that was playing host to over 300 teams from across the Upper Midwest for the Fall Cup. He had a promise to keep.

Wearing a green Timberwolves hat and a black Timberwolves shirt, he stood in the corner of the field under an unseasonably hot late-September sun and watched an under-12 girls game while still wrapping his head around the Timberwolves having just traded him to the New York Knicks.

His world had been turned upside down. His phone had not stopped pinging with text messages. The trade that brought Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick to Minnesota was still being finalized. And yet, there Towns was because long ago he had told one of the girls on the green team that he would watch her play one day.

He thought there would be plenty of time for that. Suddenly, there wasn’t. A flight was scheduled for the next day to whisk him away to New York, so he piled into the car with his father and his friends and headed to the field about 20 minutes north of downtown Minneapolis.

As he stood there, parents craned their necks and whispered to each other because it’s hard for a 7-foot, four-time NBA All-Star to keep a low profile in this kind of setting.

Is that Karl-Anthony Towns? That is!

Word started to spread. Girls from other teams that had just played or were waiting to take the field streamed toward him, sheepishly saying hello and asking to take pictures. He obliged every one and asked them how their games were going. Boys who grumbled about being forced to go watch their sisters play were probably singing a different tune on the ride home. Referees hustled over as soon as the game was over.

Almost all of them had a respectful and simple message for him: “Thank you.”

Nine years is a lifetime in the NBA. The girl he was coming to see was 3 months old when Flip Saunders drafted Towns No. 1 overall in 2015. The parents ogling him watched him grow from a 19-year-old kid into a 28-year-old man. They saw him handle success (NBA Rookie of the Year, four All-Star games, two All-NBA teams, a 3-point contest championship and last season’s run to the Western Conference finals), failure (missing the postseason five times, playoff struggles against Dallas in 2024, Denver on an injured knee in 2023 and Houston in 2018) and heartbreak (Saunders died from lymphoma before Towns played a game and Towns’ mother, Jacqueline, died from COVID-19 in 2020).

Dozens came by to pay their respects, all of them knowing he was on his way to New York. The kids smiled nervously and told him they were sorry to see him go. They said they wished he was staying.

“Maybe one day you will come back,” a young girl wearing a white jersey and bright green cleats told him.

Towns smiled widely. He encouraged them to focus on having fun and laughed when one of them told him he would see her on TV one day, just like him. He seemed like he needed this after a wild night that few saw coming.

It felt like a reflective moment, a time to look back on his stay in Minnesota and what it all meant. He might not have delivered championships to Minnesota as he openly talked about. He did not develop into the kind of player who singularly guarantees a 50-win season and a chance to go deep into the playoffs. He won two playoff series in his nine seasons and missed the playoffs entirely four times.

He also departs as the Timberwolves’ career leader in 3-pointers made and PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and is second to Kevin Garnett in most other major franchise categories, including scoring, rebounding, blocked shots and minutes played. He holds the top three spots on the team’s single-game scoring chart. And he finished his run with the Wolves with three straight playoff appearances, including the team’s second conference finals berth in 35 years last season after he hurried back from midseason knee surgery.

The team’s success and the way he dutifully changed his role to accommodate Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards in recent seasons has Towns leaving at a time when the respect for him in these parts has never been higher.

The story of the Towns era in Minnesota is not one of disappointment or a partnership not working. It is a story of accomplishment that they were able to stay together as long as they did while enduring so much strife along the way.

Karl-Anthony Towns is leaving the Timberwolves in a much better place than he found them. (AAron Ontiveroz / The Denver Post)

On his first day in Minnesota as a Timberwolves player in 2015, a fresh-faced Towns and his parents walked the skyways of downtown Minneapolis with Wolves caps on while fans lost their minds at seeing a player they envisioned as the answer to all their prayers for a downtrodden franchise. The family walked into the team’s shiny new practice facility, Jacqueline’s smile and energy filling the cavernous court and Karl Sr. marveling at a gift from the team to its newest member: a golf bag with a Timberwolves logo on it.

It looked like a perfect match. After all, Twin Cities is just a fancier way of saying Towns. The annual general managers survey conducted by NBA.com picked Towns for two consecutive years as the player GMs would most like to build their teams around. He was very much in the conversation with Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid for the best young big man in the game. With Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine by his side, the Wolves appeared to be coming out of a long, cold winter.

As often happens in life, the older Towns got, the more complicated things became. Tom Thibodeau traded LaVine for Jimmy Butler in 2017, a marriage that proved to be doomed almost from the start. Butler demanded a trade in 2018 and was shipped to Philadelphia. That sealed Thibodeau’s fate as well. Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, D’Angelo Russell, Robert Covington and Tyus Jones have all come and gone over the years, unable to give Towns the help he needed to get out of the first round of the playoffs.

The Wolves bottomed out after Butler and Thibodeau were jettisoned, winning just 19 games in the 2019-20 season. Injuries, enormous personal loss and roster upheaval followed and Jokić and Embiid rocketed past him on the NBA’s superstar ladder.

Through all of the change and turmoil, Towns was the one constant. Seven general managers and five head coaches circulated through team headquarters in downtown Minneapolis during KAT’s first seven years in the league, leaving him to be the public face of a team that could not seem to get out of its way.

Fans started to point the finger at him, especially after Butler made the NBA Finals with the Miami Heat, which seemingly turned into a referendum on who was right and who was wrong in their messy split. Frustration was expressed with the way he complained to officials and the ill-advised passes he would throw over his shoulder for turnovers.

Towns could make himself an easy target sometimes. When he got excited, he could say some wild stuff, like when he went on Patrick Beverley’s podcast and said that making it out of the Play-In Tournament was in some ways as impressive as the Denver Nuggets winning the 2023 title. On the same pod, he said he had not proposed to girlfriend Jordyn Woods because he was “married to the game.”

Corny? Yes. But harmless. And yet he became one of the league’s favorite pin cushions. He was poked over and over again about things he would say and do, to the point where even heartfelt gestures like waving to the Target Center crowd to say thank you after the Wolves were eliminated by Memphis in the 2022 playoffs became the subject of derision.

He would kick his leg out on 3-pointers and hook his defender’s arm on drives, and there were moments of tension along the way. Towns was appalled at the way Butler was allowed to torpedo an entire season when Butler demanded a trade. Navigating injuries could be tricky. Things got icy for a minute last season when KAT scored a franchise-record 62 points against the Charlotte Hornets, but all coach Chris Finch could do afterward was fume when his team gave away the game in the fourth quarter.

The thing about this pairing was that they always found a way through it. It’s easy to pull the ejection handle these days. Easy for a player to look at a situation and say, “Get me out of here,” or for an organization to get frustrated with a player and ship him out. That never happened here. They worked through their differences and stayed together. For nine years, a relative eternity.

Now Towns is leaving the Timberwolves in a much better place than he found it, thanks to how he graciously handled the arrivals of Gobert and Edwards and tailored his game to complement theirs. And thanks to the organization hiring Tim Connelly and Finch, assembling one of the most talented rosters in the league and entering this season with designs on another deep playoff run.

And those fans who gnashed their teeth through the lean years started to rally around him in recent seasons. They pushed back at the “soft” label, pointing out that there was nothing soft about a player enduring what he endured on a personal level and never opting for the easy way out. They started to stand up for him when the pundits made jokes at his expense and they celebrated his return to All-Star form last season.

Off the court, the appreciation has never been in question. His coat drive every winter kept thousands of underprivileged kids warm. He would host families in need for movie screenings at the team facility around Christmas and everyone would leave with gaming systems and Beats headphones. He once saw a social media post that launched a fundraising drive for a man who had his car stolen for the third time in a calendar year. KAT just bought him a car.

Last season a local pizza place gained wide acclaim for putting a sign out front that said, “Honk if you love Naz Reid.” When the sign maker’s mother died in May, he posted a GoFundMe looking for help with costs incurred. KAT saw it and donated $1,500. After news of the trade spread, the sign was given a temporary new look.

This is still Naz’s sign…but sometimes you have to pay respect to the people who helped pave the way. Thank you KAT. The Timberwolves will never be the same without you. You are a wolf forever 🙏🏻@KarlTowns pic.twitter.com/yx5o8hJ1vC

— K👁🌲🐺🌲 (@Kgformvp211) September 29, 2024

As Towns leaned against a fence and watched the soccer game, one girl had a natural question for him.

Why are you here?

He paused for a moment and said he came to watch his niece, pointing to a 9-year-old running around with the No. 32 on her back. KAT met Nita and her brother, Owen, years ago when I brought them to practice one day. He came over and handed them headbands, which was enough for Nita to be convinced that they were friends forever. She wears 32 because of him and has been known to sleep in a Towns jersey at night.

At 12:30 a.m. Saturday, about three and a half hours after Connelly visited him at his home to tell him he was being traded, a text message hit my phone from “32” asking about my kids.

“Let me know where you at tomorrow,” it read. “They got sports or anything?”

I told him Nita had a tournament, and he said he would be there. They only had a few brief meetups over the years, but KAT would ask often about how they were doing, especially when Owen was experiencing some health issues that kept me from a few road trips in the playoffs. He vowed to come see them play one of these days.

“I gotta see my little ones,” he wrote. “Just reciprocating love.”

I didn’t expect him to make it. Not with so much to do in so little time. But he did. Much like his first day in Minnesota, his second-to-last day was spent decked out in Wolves gear and mingling with fans who couldn’t believe their luck to run into him. He took every picture that was asked of him, politely chatted with kids and grownups and gave hugs when they were offered. He told Owen he was proud of him for overcoming everything he had been through. The smile never left his face.

Maybe he needed it as much as they did. One final reminder of an impact that goes so much deeper than basketball.

As Nita’s game ended, she came over to us in the corner of the field. He pulled her aside, wrapped her up in a hug and whispered in her ear for a minute.

There are two things I did not do that day. I did not ask him for an interview. It was easy to see he was still processing the news and the emotions were still raw. And I did not ask Nita what he said to her.

That was just for them.

((Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; top photo of Towns: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)

As the WNBA has reached wildly successful highs this season in viewership and attendance, players say the boom long coveted throughout women’s basketball has come with unfortunate consequences. During these playoffs, athletes who would normally be focused on winning have instead shared a swell of complaints of being targeted with racist, misogynistic, homophobic and threatening attacks.

The rise in harassment, players say, has taken a mental toll. Some question how the league has considered their well-being as it has managed an influx of attention that followed the college stardom of Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese into the pros.

A few players have made more drastic moves, deactivating some of their social media accounts or heavily limiting their engagement, despite the clear and often critical income potential that comes from marketing directly to fans.

Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner said fans have voiced racist taunts at her and others. Reese said AI-generated nude images of her have circulated online.

Connecticut Sun guard DiJonai Carrington shared on Instagram a graphic email sent to her with threats of violence and a racist slur, following a moment during the first game of the playoffs in which Carrington inadvertently poked one of Clark’s eyes. Carrington’s partner, NaLyssa Smith, who plays with Clark on the Indiana Fever, wrote on X that Carrington has even been followed.

Alyssa Thomas said she and her Sun teammates had faced the most intense racist bullying she has encountered in 11 WNBA seasons as they faced the Fever and ended Clark’s rookie season.

“With more exposure, we’re seeing more of those people come out and say their words online,” Sky forward Brianna Turner said. “They talk their talk, but I highly doubt they’re watching any games or any content. They’re just there to spread hate and be messy online when they couldn’t care less about what happens in the WNBA or about any players, either.”

Yall can clown me all you want im never gonna stop advocating for respecting players. Respectfully, feel free mute or block if that’s a trigger for you. Please protect your peace

— Brianna Turner (@_Breezy_Briii) September 22, 2024

The troubling messages have been at odds with the welcoming environment the league and its players — the majority of whom are Black and many in the LGBTQ+ community — sought to create over the past three decades. As it fought for financial stability and credibility with media and fans since its 1996 inception, the WNBA has increasingly considered itself a haven for inclusivity.

Some players say that environment has been stained by new factions of fans bringing toxicity to the sport, treating the WNBA and its players as fodder for culture-war arguments during a polarizing period in American society.

“I appreciate the new eyes,” Sky forward Isabelle Harrison said. “But if this comes with hate and bigotry and racism and even people who look like me bashing me, keep it offline because it’s so hurtful, and you don’t know how that affects people.”

That dimension has added a complexity to the developing play and rivalry of Clark, who is White, and Reese, who is Black. Clark won Rookie of the Year honors and guided the Fever to the playoffs. Reese’s season ended in early September with a wrist injury, but not until she had already set WNBA records for consecutive double-doubles and rebounds in a season.

Fever forward Aliyah Boston said some people are simply being opportunistic. “It’s easy to attach yourself to the Fever because we have a lot of attention around us right now, and it’s so easy to say, ‘Well, I’m a Fever fan, I’m an A.B. fan, I’m a Caitlin fan and just (spew) hate off of that — and that’s never OK,” she said.

Tension bubbled early this season as some fans and sports commentators accused veteran WNBA players of feeling jealous of Clark’s stardom and claimed she was being targeted in games. Even though that notion was widely dismissed by players, fouls on Clark quickly became hot topics to debate — with conversations devolving into personal insults or worse.

A Chicago Tribune op-ed likened a hard foul on Clark by Sky guard Chennedy Carter to “assault,” and an Indiana congressman wrote an open letter to the WNBA commissioner airing his grievances about the foul. Charles Barkley lambasted WNBA players for being “petty” and “jealous” of Clark’s popularity, while Sheryl Swoopes, on multiple occasions, seemed to downplay Clark’s accolades. ESPN personality Pat McAfee apologized for calling Clark a “White b—-” on his show during a segment in which he mused about her stardom and her race.

“It is discouraging that we’re losing the conversation around the skill of these players and it’s being overshadowed by the politicized nature of their presence,” said Ajhanai Keaton, an assistant professor of sports management at UMass Amherst.

The scrutiny of Clark throughout the season frequently went beyond her play and her comments about games.

Her social media presence is mostly limited to retweets of Iowa and Fever posts, with some sharing of content from her commercial sponsors. She recently created a buzz by liking a Taylor Swift Instagram post that endorsed Kamala Harris for president, although Clark did not formally endorse Harris herself and simply encouraged voting in the November presidential election when asked to explain her action.

She denounced the use of her name to push divisive agendas online, calling it “disappointing” and “unacceptable.” “Those aren’t fans,” she said Friday. “Those are trolls, and it’s a real disservice to the people in our league, the organization, the WNBA.”

Still, much of the conversation carries on regardless of her participation.

“She’s trying to get her bearings and develop her game and take her game to the next level and be on this bigger stage,” New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones said earlier this season. “And she’s really handling it well. It’s the fan base that’s going crazy and making it a race war and all this other stuff.”

The league released a statement last week condemning online harassment of players. But commissioner Cathy Engelbert previously faced criticism, including from the players association, for lauding the league’s rivalries when asked in a CNBC interview about “menacing” comments players receive.

“The league should have taken a stance a long time ago, and not waited for it to get this kind of deep, and this far on what’s tolerated and what’s not,” Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu said.

Sun guard DiJonai Carrington said she’s been targeted with threatening messages this season. (Elsa / Getty)

Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray, when asked how the league could have protected players throughout the season, said: “Probably make a statement earlier than what they did.”

The WNBA’s recent statement mentioned involving law enforcement when necessary to protect players. The league monitors online threats and works with teams and arenas on safety issues, and with local law enforcement, when necessary. It employs security in each market to help players. All 12 teams also have dedicated security who travel with them to games.

The Chicago Sky introduced a partnership this season with an app company that uses AI to shield players from directly seeing negative posts about them on their phones. Before the start of the season, the WNBA provided information and resources to players about mental health as part of a routine annual meeting.

Liberty forward Breanna Stewart, who said she has reported some messages to team officials, wants the league to host more sessions focused on dealing with internet harassment. “There could be probably more training,” she said. “What should you do if you get those messages?”

Some players said they have removed social media apps — especially X — to avoid attacks, but that can come at a cost. Endorsement deals often hinge on engagement with fans online. A robust following on social media can become a key source of income. That’s especially important in a league with a mean player salary of about $110,000 this season, according to HerHoopStats — a figure well below what most male professional athletes make in top North American leagues.

Sparks guard Zia Cooke said she deactivated her X account earlier this season to avoid negative comments but remained on TikTok and Instagram because of potential additional earnings. “If it were really up to me, I would deactivate all of my accounts just because I’m trying to stay mentally locked in as far as basketball and finding my way in this game,” she said.

Boston said she deleted some of her social media accounts to avoid vitriolic criticism as the Fever got off to a 1-8 start this season.

The spread of legalized sports betting in the United States has also become a prompt for fans sending angry messages to WNBA players. Dream wing Rhyne Howard said she has received threatening messages about her “messing up random parlays” after poor performances, a complaint similarly heard in men’s leagues.

But often, WNBA players said, attacks against them feel much more personal, focused on their racial and sexual identities rather than their basketball abilities.

“Our world is so polarized based on race,” said professor Ketra Armstrong, the University of Michigan’s director of the Center for Race and Ethnicity in Sport. “When people talk about race, oftentimes it privileges whiteness, and when they talk about gender, it privileges maleness. This is not unique to sport, this is not unique to Caitlin Clark. It’s the way of the world and it’s been that way in every domain, be it in politics, be it in business, be it in social movements and civil rights.”

Reese, who has more than 4 million followers on Instagram and more than 600,000 on X, has kept a steady stream of engagement even as she has been frequently criticized. She said she occasionally needs to take breaks from social media to avoid vitriol and that she leans on robust support from people around her.

“We’re still human,” Reese said, adding: “Sometimes we do have to take some time away.”

— The Athletic’s Grace Raynor and Sabreena Merchant contributed to this report.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo: iStock)

Sunday night’s dramatic derby with city rivals Real Madrid put Atletico Madrid’s relationship with the radical block of fans that gather inside their ground under a new global spotlight.

After Real Madrid took the lead, Atletico captain Koke and manager Diego Simeone pleaded for calm with balaclava-wearing supporters, who had thrown objects onto the pitch at rival goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois for his supposedly provocative celebrations.

The match was suspended for 20 minutes before Angel Correa’s 95th-minute equaliser gave Simeone’s side a 1-1 draw.

After the final whistle, Atletico’s players celebrated in front of the section where the small number of supporters involved in the object-throwing regularly congregate — behind the goal at the south end of their Estadio Metropolitano, which on Sunday welcomed a record crowd of 70,112.

The whole night shone a spotlight on the more radical elements of Atletico’s support, especially the Frente Atletico ‘ultras’ (fans marked out for their choreographed and fanatical support) and their long and complicated relationship with the club’s hierarchy and the current team.

It also drew further attention to the stormy relationship between the Spanish capital’s two biggest football clubs, including historical grievances on the Atletico side, and the racist abuse Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior has suffered around recent meetings between the sides.

Here, The Athletic dives into the deeper questions behind what happened.

Who are the Frente Atletico?

The Frente Atletico was formed in 1982, originally influenced by ultras movements in Italy and the UK. Atletico recognised it as an official supporters club and encouraged them as they brought atmosphere with chants and banners, motivated players and attracted bigger crowds to the stadium. Frente leaders got to know then-Atletico president Jesus Gil, occasionally socialising with Atletico players and appearing on Spanish radio shows in the 1980s.

Over time, Frente members holding more radical right-wing views took control of the group. They were also attracted by money-making opportunities, as Atletico facilitated the sale of blocks of match tickets that the Frente leadership could control. This continued after Atletico were converted into a private company in 1992, with Gil and film producer Enrique Cerezo taking control in a move Spain’s supreme court later deemed illegal — but no action followed as the court also said that the statute of limitations had passed.

Atletico’s Metropolitano had a record crowd on Sunday night (Florencia Tan Jun/Getty Images)

There was often violence involved with the Frente. In the 1980s, some members would ‘defend’ Atletico fans from opposition ultras at away games. There were also clashes with police.

The group became increasingly radical. Frente members attacked and killed Real Sociedad supporter Aitor Zabaleta near Atletico’s old Vicente Calderon stadium in 1998. Despite this, Frente retained its privileges with the club, continuing to sell match tickets and storing its banners and drums at the Calderon.

More recently, in November 2014, Deportivo La Coruna ultra Javier ‘Jimmy’ Romero Taboada was killed during an organised fight between Depor and Atletico fans before a game at the Calderon.

How could such a group still be allowed into Atletico’s stadium?

After Romero Taboada’s death, Atletico revoked the Frente’s official status and banned some members from the Calderon. Over the next few years, Atletico began to modernise on and off the pitch, most notably moving to the Estadio Metropolitano on Madrid’s outskirts. Twelve consecutive seasons of Champions League football under Simeone have brought extra revenue and status as one of Europe’s elite clubs.

But Frente-aligned clothes, banners and chants are still a part of the Metropolitano’s matchday experience. Incidents are less frequent but still serious, including an Atletico ultra displaying a Nazi swastika at a game in May 2018 and a far-right banner flown in their section of the stadium during that year’s Europa League final against Marseille in Lyon.

The scene inside Atletico’s ground before kick-off on Sunday night (Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images)

There have also been battles for control of Atletico’s most radical fans and the moneymaking opportunities presented by the Frente ‘brand’, such as ‘official’ scarves and T-shirts. A man was hospitalised in January 2018 after a fight between members of different hardcore Atletico groups outside the Metropolitano. A new radical group, ‘Suburbios Firm’, has emerged — its members are already banned from attending home games, but sometimes support the team away.

In practical terms, especially within the stadium, the ‘Frente’ is now more of an idea than an actual group of paid-up members. Ultras from the 1990s and 2000s are older and less likely to attend matches. The club recognise an ‘animation section’ of fans behind the goal but they have long ended the practice of facilitating blocks of tickets for sale by ultras leaders.

Atletico say they can only ban individuals from the stadium after they have committed a crime and that it is impossible (and illegal) to take collective action against groups of people without evidence of wrongdoing. “We cannot expel 200 people from the stadium because someone believes they belong to a certain group or because they wear a certain T-shirt,” a club spokesperson told The Athletic. “The image might be awful, but there has to be a crime committed for action to be taken.”

After Sunday’s events, an Atletico statement said the club was committed to “working with the police to locate those involved, one of whom has already been identified”.

Were they involved in the racist abuse of Vinicius Jr?

Last December, four members of Frente Atletico were charged over the hanging of an effigy dressed to resemble Vinicius Jr from a bridge near Real Madrid’s training ground in January 2023. The mannequin was hung next to a 16-metre banner that read “Madrid hates Real” and was displayed hours before a Madrid derby in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals.

GO DEEPER

Four ultras charged over Vinicius Jr effigy

After last season’s Metropolitano ‘derbi’, police identified individuals who were caught on camera racially abusing the Brazilian. Atletico revoked their status as club members, banning them from the stadium. Similarly, when one ‘fan’ racially abused Athletic Bilbao’s Nico Williams in April, he was also expelled and banned.

Before Sunday’s game, messages on social media circulated with some apparent Atletico fans urging supporters to wear masks to the game to avoid detection by cameras when making racist insults, specifically calling Vinicius Jr a monkey.

Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois throws a lighter off the pitch (Florencia Tan Jun/Getty Images)

No racist abuse of Vinicus Jr was reported on Sunday, although there were chants against him when Madrid’s team bus arrived and whistles for his every intervention on the pitch.

Instead, the focus switched to Courtois, a former Atletico player who moved from Chelsea to Real Madrid in 2018.

How does Atletico’s self-image fit with all this?

Atletico fans, players and club officials have historically identified themselves as scrappy underdogs who fight against authority and power — especially against their richer and more glamorous city rivals. That self-image is deeply rooted within the club and most Atletico fans are convinced the media and authorities support Real Madrid.

Atletico went 14 years without a win against Real Madrid (1999-2013) and still feel that any victory for Atletico over Madrid is a victory for the little guy.

“These are difficult times and people identify with us as we are fighting against many adversities,” said then-Atletico midfielder Tiago in 2014 as Simeone’s side won that season’s league title — their third in 37 years. “We’re like Robin Hood.”

Simeone’s style of football — with its emphasis on hard work and physicality — fits Atletico’s traditions and the emotional connection with the stadium has played a key role. After each game, Atletico’s players salute all four corners of the stadium, starting with their more hardcore fans.

On Sunday, when the game was stopped after objects were thrown at Courtois, Atletico captain Koke and long-serving defender Jose Maria Gimenez ran behind the goal to speak with the fans in the area the objects had come from. Simeone also approached them, making a ‘calm down’ gesture.

After the game, as usual, Atletico’s players gathered on the edge of the penalty area to applaud the Fondo Sur (the hardcore group of fans who congregate behind the goal at the stadium’s south end), which many felt could be seen as a gesture of support for their behaviour during the game.

Simeone in front of the Fondo Sur section at Atletico’s ground on Sunday (Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images)

What do most Atletico fans think?

As the Frente is not an official group, nobody knows exactly how many members it has or how many regularly attend games. Some ultras who lead chants behind the goal have often covered their faces with scarves or balaclavas to avoid identification.

The vast majority of Atletico fans do not like the Frente at all. Many keep away from the bars where the hardcore ultras drink before games and also steer clear of them in the stadium.

Divides within the fanbase are clear. In November 2022, the Fondo Sur left their area empty for the first half of a game against Espanyol, protesting the team’s poor displays. Fans in other areas of the stadium loudly whistled them when they did enter.

On Sunday evening, when the referee took the players off the pitch in the second half, this divide was again evident. Amid a surreal silence in most of the ground, ultras behind the goal continued to chant and jump and down, only to be met by whistles from other areas of the ground. There were also whistles when the team went to applaud the Fondo Sur on the final whistle.

Atletico players acknowledging fans after the final whistle on Sunday (Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images)

“I was there and I was one of those who whistled the Frente,” said one Atletico fan (as the supporters consulted for this article work in football, they spoke anonymously to protect their position). “Atletico fans are fed up and embarrassed by what happened.”

Another supporter said: “Ninety-nine per cent of the people in that stand are normal, but those who dominate are the brainless ones.”

Atletico’s ‘embattled underdog’ identity can blend into a feeling of persecution among regular fans, not just Atletico’s more radical ultras. Many agreed when Simeone said after Sunday’s game that Courtois bears responsibility for the way he celebrated Madrid’s opening goal. TV pictures showed him mouthing, ‘Vamos’ (come on) as he moved his hand towards the stands — a proactive gesture, in the view of home fans. Moments before the goal, chants of, “Courtois die” had been heard.

Courtois is not popular among Atletico fans. Since joining Real Madrid, they feel he has been disrespectful towards his former team, who he represented from 2011 to 2014. Like all players who have made more than 100 Atletico appearances, he has a plaque on the ‘centenary players’ walk’ on the stadium concourse. As they always do whenever Courtois plays at the Metropolitano with Real, Atletico fans left rubbish and other debris on his plaque.

What does the rest of Spanish football make of Atletico’s hardcore fans?

After Romero Taboada’s death in 2014, there was a concerted effort from Spanish football authorities to weaken ultras’ influence, even trying to keep them out of stadiums.

Many other clubs — including Real Madrid and Barcelona — have banned individuals and groups. They have also introduced their own ‘official’ animation sections, which are more tightly controlled by club authorities, so behaviour can be more easily policed.

GO DEEPER

Real Madrid’s south stand: How the club transformed a former far-right stronghold

La Liga’s reputation took a battering following the global uproar at the racist abuse that Vinicius Jr suffered in Valencia’s Mestalla stadium last year and the league’s executives have since reacted much more seriously to any incidents of racism within or around Spanish stadiums, and also online.

Vinicius Jr has been racially abused by fans at several La Liga grounds (Aitor Alcalde/Getty Images)

La Liga’s official response on Sunday evening to the events inside the stadium was relatively restrained, with a post on X saying there was “zero tolerance for any acts of violence inside or outside our stadiums”.

Local coverage of the events, which made many headlines in international media, was also quite restrained. There were no angry op-eds calling for the Metropolitano to be closed or for the complete banning of all ultras from Spanish stadiums.

The Spanish Football Federation and La Liga have yet to decide what punishment Atletico will receive for Sunday’s incident. They could try to close parts of the stadium for a few games, but that may be difficult to impose. Real Betis successfully appealed such a sanction when a Sevilla player was hit by an object thrown from the stands in January 2022. Atletico also successfully appealed in April when a section of the stand was closed for two games after Williams was racially abused, arguing that it was unfair to punish a whole group for the behaviour of one individual.

GO DEEPER

The shocking abuse Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr faced at Valencia revealed in new report

What about Atletico’s international image and the club’s medium-term future?

The evolution of Atletico into one of Europe’s elite clubs continued this summer, with the investment of more than €200million (£166.6m; $222.2m) in big international stars, including Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher.

It added to a feeling that Atletico’s hierarchy are looking to take a big leap forward. This summer, €70m was raised from the club’s shareholders, which include UK-Israeli company Quantum Pacific and U.S. investors Ares Management Corporation. Chief executive Miguel Angel Gil Marin laid the first stone at a new training ground on a site beside the Metropolitano.

Many within the Spanish football industry believe that Gil Marin and Cerezo will sell their controlling interest in Atletico to foreign investors. Sunday’s disgraceful scenes, which echoed around the world, will not have helped drum up interest.

When reporters asked Cerezo on Sunday afternoon about the online hate messages about Vinicius Jr, he first said, “At Atletico Madrid, I don’t consider that there is anyone anti-racist or racist.” Later, at the stadium, he clarified to broadcasters DAZN that he “meant to say that we all have a responsibility to fight against racism”.

Cerezo (centre) in conversation with Real Madrid counterpart Florentino Perez (Oscar J Barroso/Europa Press via Getty Images)

Atletico are keen to project a more modern positive image and have launched campaigns in the stadium and online to educate their fans.

“’We Love Football’ is a project to channel all of our actions aimed to build a sport where diversity, inclusion, respect and tolerance inspire society,” the club’s website says.

On Sunday, Atletico quickly released a statement saying the club was working with police to identify all individuals who threw objects onto the pitch and that they will be banned from attending games. Since Sunday, Atletico have also changed their statutes so that fans who wear masks to avoid identification can be immediately expelled from the stadium.

There is an awareness at Atletico — within the club and among the fans — that their image has been badly damaged. The vast majority of fans are adamant that the Frente does not represent their views and the club say they are doing all they can to stamp out their influence — but the connection is still strong between the team and the section of the stand where there is continuing anti-social (and worse) behaviour.

“The image of the players talking to fans wearing balaclavas, and then going to applaud the stand at the end of the game, was terrible,” said another Atletico fan. “The club still has a lot of work to do.”

(Top photo: Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images)

In baseball, the most difficult defeats to explain are the ones you don’t see coming.

“That’s a good question,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said last autumn when asked why his historically prolific offense, the driving force behind a 104-victory team, failed to deliver in the National League Division Series against the Phillies.

“Shock factor — very high,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after his 111-win club crashed out in four games to the 89-win Padres in the 2022 National League Division Series. “The great thing about baseball is the unpredictability,” he added. “And the tough thing about it is the same thing.”

“You come in riding the high of a tremendous regular season,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said after his 100-win group fell to the Red Sox in the 2021 American League Division Series, “and we just couldn’t get it figured out against Boston.”

Even before the Major League Baseball postseason expanded to 12 entrants in 2022, the tournament featured plenty of randomness. Executives have long lamented the cruelty of a 162-game marathon turning into a series of sprints. At season’s end, they are often left attempting to process how their finely assembled rosters, so dominant all spring and summer, can be upended so suddenly when the calendar turns to autumn.

That won’t happen in 2024.

For the first time since 2014, no club won 100 games. There are no juggernauts, no super teams, no clear favorites. All of the top seeds have dealt with extended slumps, serious injuries and a fair share of existential dread. The Dodgers lack depth in their rotation and the Yankees lack depth in their lineup. The Phillies played .500 ball in the second half. The Guardians … we’ll get to them shortly.

And the wild cards, especially in the National League, look deeper and more dangerous than in previous years. Every team in the postseason is dealing with major flaws, problems that are not hard to spot. This October may be defined by which team can overcome their most glaring deficiency.

Don’t think of this as a bug. Think of this as a feature. There might not be outrageous upsets. But there should still be riveting theater.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the 12 finalists and their biggest concerns.

American League

1. New York Yankees

Record: 94-68

Pythagorean record: 96-66

Fatal flaw: To quote Luis Severino, “you only have two good hitters.”

The former Yankee delivered a succinct but devastating scouting report before a Subway Series matchup this summer. Of course, you do not need Gene Michael’s keen eye to recognize that a disproportionate amount of the team’s offensive production stems from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge is the best hitter in the sport and Soto is not far behind. The rest of the lineup is far less threatening. The former All-Stars look creaky and the youngsters haven’t caught fire. Austin Wells, the talented rookie catcher, went cold in September. Giancarlo Stanton, the decorated slugger, remains dangerous but strikeout-prone. Anthony Rizzo, the veteran first baseman, broke two fingers in the season’s final weekend. There are other concerns about the roster — injuries and fatigue in the starting rotation, a not-insignificant number of relievers who don’t miss bats, regular missteps while running the bases, an ongoing quandary in left field — but if Judge and Soto don’t produce, it’s hard to envision the Yankees ending that World Series drought this autumn.

2. Cleveland Guardians

Record: 92-69

Pythagorean record: 90-71

Fatal flaw: Imagine what Luis Severino would say about this lineup.

No division winner scored fewer runs this season than the Guardians, who also produced less offense in 2024 than also-rans like the Cubs, Red Sox and Twins. The elite Cleveland bullpen can only hold a lead if the offense puts runs on the board. That places a significant burden on the hitters at the top of the lineup. Rookie manager Stephen Vogt recently shifted another rookie, Kyle Manzardo, into the No. 2 spot. There will be a ton of pressure on the veterans surrounding Manzardo — Steven Kwan, José Ramírez and Josh Naylor — because the lineup drops off after that quartet.

3. Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez’s knee may dictate how the Astros’ postseason goes. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)

Record: 88-73

Pythagorean record: 90-71

Fatal flaw: Yordan Alvarez is nursing a knee injury

The Astros are not inevitable, but they are pretty darn likely. Even after a sluggish start to 2024, the group rallied to capture the American League West. The team has reached the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons and the gang is still here. Most of the protagonists are characters from postseasons past. Josh Hader is in the bullpen now and the rotation features a new cast but some of the championship core remains: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez. And, of course, Alvarez, who has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers since his debut in 2019. Alvarez tends to show up in October, which renders his recent knee sprain problematic for Houston. Alvarez is unlikely to miss any games. But if he cannot produce at his usual level, the offense will miss him.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 91-71

Pythagorean record: 90-72

Fatal flaw: How much time do you have?

A year after winning 101 games and the American League East, the Orioles underperformed expectations despite an excellent season from second-year shortstop Gunnar Henderson and a strong platform campaign from free-agent-to-be pitcher Corbin Burnes. A landslide of arm injuries wrecked the rotation in the first half. The team stumbled throughout the second half. The Craig Kimbrel experiment backfired. Adley Rutschman’s production dipped. Jackson Holliday has yet to take off. Jorge Mateo could not make it back from elbow surgery. A lat injury will keep Grayson Rodriguez from pitching in October. The roster still has plenty of young talent. But the group has played sluggish baseball for months. Can they flip the switch?

5. Detroit Tigers

Record: 86-76

Pythagorean record: 85-77

Fatal flaw: They don’t get on base and they don’t hit the ball over the fence.

If you wrote off the Tigers this summer, don’t be too hard on yourself. They wrote themselves off, too. A couple days after trading No. 2 starter Jack Flaherty, Detroit could boast only a 0.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs. But a funny thing happened on the way to a middling season: Detroit caught fire and Minnesota collapsed. A.J. Hinch rode his bullpen hard to get to this point, with the team going 31-24 in one-run games. Can the magic continue into October? It will be tough if they don’t score. The Tigers finished the regular season with a teamwide .300 on-base percentage, tied with Miami for the second-worst mark in the sport. No Tiger besides Riley Greene hit more than 18 homers. The team will require an extra dose of grit to keep the party going.

6. Kansas City Royals

Record: 86-76

Pythagorean record: 91-71

Fatal flaw: They won’t be playing the Chicago White Sox.

No team benefited more from the historic incompetence on the South Side than the Royals. Kansas City went 12-1 against the White Sox and 74-75 against the rest of the sport. That cushion kept them upright despite two separate seven-game losing streaks in the season’s final weeks. The offense went quiet in those periods. Outside of absolute sensation Bobby Witt Jr. and veteran backstop Salvador Perez, the lineup features few threats. The team would be thrilled if first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino can recover from a broken thumb and play on Tuesday. The margin for error for the team’s starting trio of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Cole Ragans will still be thin.

National League

Tyler Glasnow was supposed to play a significant postseason role for the Dodgers. Instead, he’s one of many arms on the shelf. (Harry How / Getty Images)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 98-64

Pythagorean record: 96-66

Fatal flaw: Rotation, rotation, rotation.

The Dodgers enter October in a familiar position. They hold a top seed and their rotation is worrisome. Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has dropped in his last two starts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has not pitched past the fifth inning since returning from a shoulder injury in September. Walker Buehler showed some championship mettle in his last outing, but still finished the season with a 5.38 ERA. Injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan may force Landon Knack into a more prominent role. The Dodgers have a quality bullpen and a ferocious offense. They will need each unit to bring its best. Put it this way: If the Dodgers win the World Series, it might take a bunch of 7-5 victories.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 95-67

Pythagorean record: 92-70

Fatal flaw: The lineup got banged up and cooled off in the season’s second half.

After peaking in October for the past two seasons, Philadelphia may have peaked too soon in 2024. The Phillies played at a 104-win pace before the All-Star break, but started to waver soon after. Alec Bohm posted an .830 OPS in the first half and a .681 OPS afterward. Trea Turner put up an .687 OPS after the break. Brandon Marsh took his own dip. Bryce Harper hit 21 homers in the first half and nine in the second as he dealt with irritation in his right wrist and a surgically repaired right elbow. Kyle Schwarber hyper-extended his elbow in September. In all, the club has looked a lot less formidable since August.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 93-69

Pythagorean record: 95-67

Fatal flaw: Their pitchers give up too many flyballs.

On the surface, Milwaukee’s run-prevention unit looks as strong as usual, finishing the season ranked fifth in the sport in ERA. Under the hood, though, there is reason for concern. The team finished in the middle of the pack in fielding-independent ERA and strikeout rate. So their staff allows hitters to put the ball in play, and many of their pitchers profile as flyball guys. That can be worrisome against elite competition. Freddy Peralta, Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale are all homer-prone. Losing Sal Frelick, a strong fielder in right field, for the Wild Card Series will hamper their elite outfield defense. The good news for Milwaukee is that in the form of Willy Adames, William Contreras and Jackson Chourio, the team has some hitters who can counteract short-sequence strikes from the opposition.

4. San Diego Padres

Record: 93-69

Pythagorean record: 90-72

Fatal flaw: They didn’t win the National League West.

To some executives and evaluators, the Padres might be the most complete team in the tournament. The offense is deep, offers a diversity of approach and contains star power in the form of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rotation boasts four dudes capable of missing bats and subduing good lineups. A.J. Preller improved the bullpen at the trade deadline by adding Jason Adam and Tanner Scott to a group headlined by Robert Suarez and Adrián Morejón. This team is legit. The only problem is they peaked too late to run down the Dodgers, who took a crucial series last week at Chavez Ravine to wrap up another division crown. So San Diego must aim for a World Series the hard way, flipping the proverbial weighted coin in a three-game Wild Card Series which would earn them another shot at the Dodgers. The Padres do not fear their northern rivals — San Diego went 8-5 against them in 2024 — but they would enter that series facing some challenges, lacking home field advantage and having used their pitchers to escape the opening round.

5. Atlanta Braves

Record: 89-73

Pythagorean record: 92-70

Fatal flaw: The injuries just won’t stop.

Atlanta played this entire season without young ace Spencer Strider. They lost Ronald Acuña Jr. in May. Austin Riley broke his hand in August. And Chris Sale, the presumptive National League Cy Young award favorite, has not pitched since Sept. 19, and could not answer the bell for a decisive Game 162 against the Mets because of back spasms. Yet here the Braves are. Who knows what shape they will be in when the club arrives in San Diego for the Wild Card Series on Tuesday? The lineup is pocked with holes. After Max Fried, who will be available to start? Sale is questionable. Spencer Schwellenbach logged seven innings on Monday. Reynaldo López appeared in relief in Game 162. The combination of injuries and exhaustion looks daunting.

6. New York Mets

Record: 89-73

Pythagorean record: 88-74

Fatal flaw: Their relievers don’t throw strikes.

The Mets have a few things working in their favor. Their offense is potent. They have co-opted the chillest denizen of McDonaldland as a mascot. Their second baseman is a budding pop star. The group should be commended for providing their fans with a delightful summer — because their bullpen might not have what it takes to last deep into October. The group entered Monday’s doubleheader tied for the third-worst relief walk rate in the sport. After throwing 66 pitches in 24 hours, Edwin Díaz may not be available in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. And he may not be able to throw a multi-inning stint in the opening round. That means rookie manager Carlos Mendoza will need to utilize a motley group of walk-prone relievers to advance. It won’t be easy. But neither was rallying from a 24-33 record at the beginning of June.

(Top photo of Soto and Judge: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)

Let’s start with some good news: I can only improve from here … right?

Last year I did this exercise of picking five teams that would exceed expectations and, well, let’s just say my picks did not exceed expectations. The Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets had four of the NBA’s seven worst records. All at once now: Yiiiikes. Only the Houston Rockets salvaged my effort.

The backstory: I made some tweaks to my prediction model last year that I thought would improve and simplify it. I accomplished the second goal but emphatically failed on the first. Yes, the model was simpler, which is generally a good thing, but unfortunately, it was also dumber and missed on some important but subtle things that mattered. Most of the teams I whiffed on, for instance, were shaky in secondary depth after their top seven players; some of my playing time estimates were also far too simplistic, in ways that tweaked the model away from reality.

Maybe some of those misses would have happened anyway — Memphis, in particular, seemed undervalued before the Grizzlies were hammered by injuries. But I’ve reinstated the methodology I’d used before last season and added one or two small tweaks. A year older and wiser, we’ll try this again.

With that introduction, for this article, I’m using BetMGM over-under totals for NBA wins for the coming season as a proxy for what the median “expectation” is for each team. In no case did those over-unders differ significantly from other sportsbooks.

Here are the five teams I think are most likely to exceed expectations. Apologies in advance to these five teams for cursing them.

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Of all the projections I’ve seen, taking the over on Cleveland seems like the most obvious one on the board. The Cavs had the league’s second-best net margin in 2022-23, and in 2023-24, they won 48 games despite myriad injuries. Their four best players missed a combined 87 games; all are in their 20s and should expect to be more available this season. Additionally, Darius Garland seems strongly likely to have a much better year after a broken jaw derailed his production even when playing last season.

The Cavs had no key losses from last year’s squad, with the top 10 players in minutes all returning. They also are one of the few playoff teams that can plausibly say they can get contributions from a rookie (20th pick Jaylon Tyson looked good in summer league).

Why might I be wrong? A coaching change from J.B. Bickerstaff to Kenny Atkinson represents a source of uncertainty, and nitpickers will note there isn’t much draft equity on hand to make in-season upgrades. The luxury tax line also will constrain them.

If you want to say this team might falter again in the playoffs, I have an easier time with that. The Cavs don’t exactly scream postseason ceiling. But that isn’t today’s discussion topic; we’re talking about piling up regular-season wins. Getting to 48 in the Eastern Conference seems like an extremely attainable number for a squad that did this the past two seasons. In fact, you can make a strong case this might be the best Cavaliers team of the post-LeBron James generation.

The Suns were my lone successful “under” pick from last season, but this time around, I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.

Yes, it’s easy to be pessimistic about the Suns’ future after they traded every draft pick that wasn’t nailed down to go all-in on an old team without a top-five player in the league. It is much harder, however, to be pessimistic about the Suns’ present. Phoenix won 49 games last year despite getting just 53 games from Bradley Beal and having neither a point guard nor a bench. While there is some age risk with Kevin Durant being 36 and Beal 31, the other indicators for this team mostly point northward.

The play of Durant and Devin Booker in the Olympics was one positive sign that they can still bring it at a high level, but it’s the rest of the roster where the real gains were made. Phoenix filled its glaring void at point guard by somehow netting Tyus Jones on a minimum deal and fortified behind him with Monte Morris. The Suns also upgraded the backup center spot with Mason Plumlee after Drew Eubanks underwhelmed a year ago and will have a full season of 3-and-D wing Royce O’Neale in the wing rotation. While it’s true the lack of draft equity and the collective bargaining agreement’s second apron will combine to make in-season additions virtually impossible, the current roster looks pretty good.

GO DEEPER

How Tyus Jones can help boost the Suns’ hopes for contention

On the sideline, the departed Frank Vogel was a good coach, but Mike Budenholzer’s track record is exceptional when it becomes to boosting a team’s regular-season win total. In the playoffs … maybe not so much. But again, that’s not the assignment today. Even in a packed Western Conference with perhaps a dozen playoff-caliber teams, I like the Suns to beat 47 wins with room to spare.

Setting an over-under is harder at the poles; one bad injury (or, for a bad team, one unlikely success), and you’re immediately pulled back toward the middle. Even for teams that look great on paper, a lot of things need to go right to win two-thirds or more of their games.

Nonetheless, pegging the Thunder to exceed 56.5 wins doesn’t seem like a huge pull when they won 57 last year with by far the league’s youngest playoff team, then followed it up with arguably the NBA’s best offseason.

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I’m not sure how high you’d have to set an over for the Thunder for me to get squeamish, but my answer is definitely “higher than this.” Unless Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slips on a banana peel, the Thunder have as plausible a pathway as any team to a 60-plus-win juggernaut.

The Thunder’s top eight players in minutes each were aged 25 or younger a season ago. They turned their biggest rotation liability (Josh Giddey) into ace defender Alex Caruso, and they upgraded their one glaring 2023-24 weakness (rebounding) by adding big man Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. No longer will the best offensive play against this team be “miss a free throw.”

The 2024-25 Thunder would be pretty solid favorites to win a series against the 2023-24 Thunder. And remember, they might not be done: The Thunder have more ability than any other team to make in-season additions or upgrades, as they’re still sitting on a trove of draft picks, have multiple tradable contacts for salary matching and are miles from the CBA’s first apron. Add it all up, and I’m surprised Vegas didn’t set the bar a little higher.

Trae Young directs his teammates during a game last season against the Nets. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)

Am I being a homer? Possibly. The Hawks only won 36 games a season ago, and they traded away the second-best player by sending Dejounte Murray to New Orleans. Yes, they won the draft lottery, but they did it in the wrong year. Top pick Zaccharie Risacher may eventually pay big dividends, but for now, he’s a role player who will mostly play off the ball. There won’t be any Victor Wembanyama-esque takeovers happening here.

On the other hand, look at Atlanta’s incentives this season. Already owing their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, the Hawks have no reason to tank, which already separates them from as many as six teams near the bottom of the East. Rising above that dross shouldn’t be challenging.

Even setting that part aside, when I see the Hawks, I see meh averageness, but I don’t see a bad enough team to lose 47 times in this conference. They upgraded their persistently leaky defense by adding Dyson Daniels and Risacher on the wings, might have a breakout second option in the criminally underrated Jalen Johnson and still have an elite offensive orchestrator in Trae Young and one of the league’s best sixth men in Bogdan Bogdanović.

They should be healthier too. Last season they lost Young for 27 games, Johnson for 25 and multiple secondary players for long stretches and still got to 36 wins. Between that and the upgrades on last year’s extremely shaky secondary depth (Larry Nance Jr., a healthy Kobe Bufkin and a full season of The Vít Krejčí Experience), Atlanta should be in better shape to weather the 82-game grind even if its injury luck doesn’t improve.

Additionally, the Hawks have some capability to do in-season roster upgrades with other team’s picks — one from the Sacramento Kings from the Kevin Huerter trade and two from the Murray trade. I’m not saying it should be Plan A, but it’s something to consider for a team with no tanking incentive when you’re evaluating whether it’ll lose 47 times.

Maybe that just means another trip to the Play-In, but for a team that has been as average as average gets the last three years, 35.5 wins isn’t that big a hurdle.

Do you know how bad you have to be to lose 58 games in the East?

Well, the Pistons do. (Rim shot.)

Seriously, the bar is now low enough in Detroit that even the Pistons should have little trouble skipping over it. While there is the depressing fact that the Pistons would not have cleared a 24.5-win over-under in any season since 2018-19 (I hear you, Detroit fans: “Hey, buddy, we pro-rated to 24.8 in the COVID year!”), new management under Trajan Langdon and a new coach in the previously mentioned Bickerstaff augurs more hopefully for the coming season.

Those two have a toe-high bar to clear to be considered upgrades in the wake of the disastrous Troy Weaver-Monty Williams tag team. In particular, some of the tragic spacing and baffling lineup decisions that plagued last season’s Pistons should go out the window with the coaching change, while the curious roster decisions of yore have been replaced by something more closely resembling an actual plan.

As with a few other teams I’ve mentioned, health should be a factor too. The Pistons low-key had enough injuries that only two players played more than 63 games last season. Usually that’s the one area in which a young, rebuilding team doesn’t have issues, but the 2023-24 Pistons were special.

Now the bad news: There still isn’t elite talent here. The front office, however, has assembled a more credible roster, with legit shooters around Cade Cunningham and centers who will actually be playing center. Even amid last season’s disaster, the numbers say the team was quasi-respectable (OK, “run-of-the-mill bad” as opposed to “historically bad”) as long as Los Tanque Comandantes Killian Hayes and James Wiseman weren’t on the floor.

Finally, look at this conference. With the Nets and Washington Wizards in full-on tank mode and teams such as the Hornets, Bulls and Raptors not exactly poised to take the league by storm, wins should be there for the taking. Plan the parade route, Detroit: This is the year the 25-win barrier goes down.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Getty; photos of Kevin Durant, Darius Garland and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: David Sherman, Adam Glanzman, Cooper Neill / NBAE via Getty Images)